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Vinson Kurian

Bay of Bengal quiet with no `low' reported

Thiruvananthapuram , Oct. 24

Rainy days have been forecast for the peninsula through the week and running into the early part of the next, interspersed with a potent low-pressure area over south-east Arabian Sea.

The Bay of Bengal has been unusually quiet with no `low' being reported thus far during the season or near-term forecasts promising any, said Mr J. V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

ONLY EXCEPTION

Passing easterly waves have been an exception, which have largely spearheaded the wet session in the peninsula since the time when the onset of the northeast monsoon was declared on last Thursday.

In fact, the brewing `low' over the southeast Arabian Sea is being attributed to one such westward-propagating wave crossing the peninsula and running head-on into a virtual offshore trough on the west coast.

`LOW' BY WEEKEND

The `low' is forecast to spring up by Saturday, which would drive up rainfall activity over the south peninsula, particularly over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep.

A couple of weather models, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts , have predicted the `low' to move north-northwest and intensify possibly into a depression or even a cyclone. Wind speeds are seen clocking to a new high across the peninsula during this period.

Sea-surface temperatures in south-east and east Arabian Sea are above the threshold limit of 26.5C for severe weather systems to develop. The storm-friendly Inter Tropical Convergence Zone , or the global band of `low', is expected to move into place in tandem.

RAINS FORECAST

The India Meteorological Department has said in its near-term forecast that rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Nicobar islands, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep and at a few places over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.

Model predictions suggest that the ongoing rainfall activity over south peninsular India is likely to increase during the next 4-5 days, the NCMRWF said.

RAIN BELT

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has said that the rain belt will progress northward along coastal Tamil Nadu right up to Chennai and even further north to south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Rainfall of up to 12.5 cm, at times topping 300 per cent above normal for this time during the year, are likely along and off the Tamil Nadu coast until the weekend, the NCEP said.

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Rainy days forecast for southern peninsula

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