The Hindu Business Line : Mustard area giving way to chana, wheat

Rabi happenings
Sowing of rapeseed-mustard so far during 2006-07 has been 26.59 lakh hectares against 33.09 lh in the same period last year.
Area under rabi oilseeds has fallen from 48.93 lh in 2004-05 to 48.66 lh now.
Mustard carryover stock seen at 15.17 lakh tonnes on March 1 next.

New Delhi , Nov. 6

There is a clear substitution of rapeseed-mustard with wheat and chana (chickpea or Bengal gram) taking place during the current rabi season.

As per the latest official sowing data, the total area under rapeseed-mustard so far during 2006-07, at 26.59 lakh hectares (lh), is way below the 33.09 lh covered in the same period of 2005-06 and the 31.54 lh of 2004-05.

As against this, there has been a significant expansion in the cumulative chickpea area to 16.078 lh, from 11.283 lh in 2005-06 and 7.605 lh in 2004-05. A similar increase is visible in the case of wheat, though these are still very early times, given sowing has just about commenced. As of now, the area under wheat, at 9.49 lh, is much more than the two lh planted during this time last year.

The reason for this divergent trend has mostly to do with prices. In rapeseed-mustard, the Centre has fixed the minimum support price (MSP) for 2006-07 at Rs 1,715 per quintal. This is only marginally below the current open market price of around Rs 1,750 per quintal. In fact, till a fortnight ago, the state-owned Nafed was selling mustard from its stocks at Rs 1,600 per quintal.

The actual situation in mustard can be gauged from the stocks position: As on November 1, Nafed alone is learnt to have been holding some 20-21 lt, with the private trade keeping another 15 lt.

On March 1, when the harvesting of the new crop starts, the total stocks are expected at 15-17 lt, which is roughly 10 lt more than the normal open stock.

In contrast to the bearish signals emanating from mustard are the bullish prospects for chana and wheat. The MSP for chana this year is Rs 1,445 per quintal, whereas market prices are now in the range of Rs 3,000 per quintal. Last year, at this time, prices were around just Rs 1,500 per quintal.

In wheat, the Centre has hiked the MSP itself massively, from Rs 650 to Rs 750 per quintal. Open market prices have, however, crossed Rs 1,100 per quintal. Even April 2007 futures are quoting at Rs 925 per quintal, indicating of the position when market arrivals of the new crop start.

The result of the price signals is that farmers in Madhya Pradesh have reduced the progressive area under mustard from 6.82 lh in 2004-05 to 6.21 lh in 2005-06 and 4.17 lh in 2006-07, while raising the same for chana from 4.880 lh to 6.860 lh and 9.160 lh. Haryana has also seen a corresponding drop in mustard acreage from six lh to 5.5 lh and 1.50 lh. Indications are that there would be extra area under wheat in Rajasthan and Haryana and also a higher proportion of early sown crop this time.

On the whole, total cumulative area under rabi oilseeds has fallen from 48.93 lh in 2004-05 to 48.66 lh in 2005-06 and 35.74 lh, while rising from 12.218 lh to 16.193 lh and 23.044 lh.

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