The Hindu Business Line : Typhoon remnant may feed Bay `low'

A lingering circulation left behind by the Typhoon Cimaron is now thought to lend its weight in precipitating the anticipated `low' over south-central Bay of Bengal early next week.

The once mighty Cimaron had threatened to ram into Indo-China as a category three/four typhoon, but had fizzled out over the South China Sea after pottering around for much longer than usual.

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com attributed this to the fact that the typhoon churned the same seas for a few days on a trot.

The associated clouding had also blocked out much of the heat input from the sun. Another aspect in Cimaron's weakening could be the inflow of dry air coming out of Asia (thanks to no violent system present in the northeast monsoon system).

CONTRA VIEW

But, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology, the likely impact of a remnant system could be incidental. He saw the evolving `low' as more or less `in situ' (home-grown) in genesis, and materialising close to the Tamil Nadu coast.

"It's likely to be a broad `low', but no model currently shows any rapid intensification. By their very nature, migrant systems are known to intensify fast by feeding on the moisture locally available."

Bay waters are warm thanks to its land-locked outreaches to the east, north and west. This is unlike the southeast Arabian Sea, which has to contend with mixing of cooler waters from the open seas all round.

This normally rules out cyclone genesis in the Arabian Sea during this time of the year.

But there have been exceptions, as in 1977 when twin cyclones in the peninsular seas charged up the weather over the region.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has already hinted the possibility of a `low' shaping up in the Bay this weekend or early next. This is in agreement with what the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting has predicted for the region.

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