The Hindu Business Line : Rains likely to dampen coffee output hopes

The current spell of rain under the influence of north-east monsoon could affect the standing arabica coffee crop. Regions such as Kodagu and Chickmagalur in Karnataka are experiencing rains daily causing problems to the crop.

"Due to the rains, we are struggling to keep the base of our plantation clean. Weeds are growing as there are empty patches within arabica plantations. There are lots of such patches in the plantation. These patches have come up after the crop was hit by the white stem borer," said Mr Bose Mandanna of Karnataka Coffee Brokers and also a former Vice-Chairman of the Coffee Board.

According to Mr Anil K. Bhandari, former Chairman of the United Planters' Association of Southern India, the rains could lead to water logging in the beans and end up splitting them. This would affect the quality.

"Rains are causing problems. We have not got the full details yet. We expect to get it in a week's time," he said.

Fly picking

At present, the first or the fly picking of the crop has got over. "Normally, fly picking begins around November 15. But this time we have been able to harvest earlier," said Mr Mandanna.

The fly picking is the best as beans are picked up at the right time of ripening. "The subsequent picking are either over-ripened or under-ripened ones," Mr Bhandari said.

"While the robusta crop looks good, the arabica is not looking as good as expected," said Mr Ramesh Rajah, President, Coffee Exporters Association of India.

"The arabica crop is witnessing the same old problem of white stem borer," said Mr Mandanna. "The situation is no different from last year."

As a result, planters expect the coffee crop to be lower than the initial estimates of 3.03 lakh tonnes made by the Coffee Board for the current season ending October next. This is against 2.74 lakh tonnes last season.

Of this, arabica is expected to be 1.04 lakh tonnes and robusta 1.96 lakh tonnes.

Planters say the arabica crop may not exceed 80,000 tonnes in view of the white stem borer infestation. Robusta production could be in the region of 1.90 lakh tonnes. "We feel the production could be around 10 per cent lower than what the Coffee Board has projected," a planter said.

"We feel the crop could be marginally lower than what the Coffee Board has projected," said Mr Rajah.

"While regions such as Saklespur could witnesse a 20 per cent more than normal crop, in Kodagu the crop is not that bad. But in the northern parts such as Hassan, there has been heavy pest infestation," said Mr Mandanna.

On the sales front, while robusta cherry will not be available for the next three months, demand for arabica and robusta parchment is non-existent. However, arabica cherry is seeing some demand.

Eyes on Vietnam

According to Mr Rajah, the situation in the coffee trade is fluid with buyers watching Vietnam. "There is no doubt that exports will be better than last year," he said.

According to trade sources, the main harvest in Vietnam is expected to be in full swing in the next fortnight.

Prices in London declined for the benchmark January contract to $1,601 a tonne on Monday after touching a seven-and-a-half-year high last week. The market is, however, seen bullish on lower inventories and Brazil's crop being just sufficient to meet export commitments and domestic consumption.

At the farm gate level, arabica parchment is ruling at Rs 4,200-4,250 a tonne, while robusta cherry is quoted at Rs 1,625-1,685. The rates are lower than ones quoted in January this year.

From January 1 to November 9, the Coffee Board issued permits to export 1.97 lakh tonnes against 1.52 lakh tonnes a year ago, while 1.78 lakh tonnes shipments (1.50 lakh tonnes) have been confirmed.

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