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Wednesday, Nov 15, 2006
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Markets - Technical Analysis
Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

Tuesday's trading activity witnessed volatile movement. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters turned bearish. Bull move on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened with additional counters.

NIFTY FUTURES

The November month contract opened with a bull gap of around 6 points from its previous close. But, they were not able to sustain their initial momentum and gave way for bears during the initial hours of trading. The November month contract moved within a range of around 30 points making an intra-day high of 3882.80. The November month contract closed with a marginal gain of 1 point from its previous close.

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The long position in the November month contract remains undisturbed. The long exit and short entry levels are placed around 13 points away from its last traded price. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to reverse the prevailing trend in November contract during Wednesday's trading.

STOCK FUTURES

The composition of the top-10 tradable counters had a minor change. Hind Lever gained entry with the exit of SRF. Ranking of the list too had minor changes. ICICI Bank and Tata Motors interchanged their rankings. Bank of India moved down to the tenth rank, while Hind lever occupied ninth rank. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were Reliance Industries, Infosys and ICICI bank.

Except ICICI bank, all the uptrend counters in the list are likely to be terminated during Wednesday's trading. On the contrary, all the downtrend counters are likely to be under threat. There are ample buying opportunities and two selling opportunities for Wednesday's trading. The best is likely to be selling in Centex. This counter is in uptrend. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to reverse the prevailing trend in Centex.

CASH SEGMENT

The composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, ranking of the list had a total revamp. ICICI bank moved up to occupy fourth position followed by Zee Tele, Infosys, Suzlon, Tata Motors, Satyam & Tata Steel.

Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate uptrend in ONGC, Infosys, Suzlon and Satyam Computers. On the other hand, all the downtrend counters in the list except Zee Tele are likely to be terminated.

There are four buying and four selling opportunities for Wednesday's trading. The best is likely to be selling in Satyam. This counter is in uptrend. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to reverse the uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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