The Hindu Business Line : Moderate El Nino conditions seen till May

There is 75 per cent probability that moderate El Nino conditions will persist into the March-April-May quarter of the next year coinciding with the 2007 southwest monsoon.

The risk will be reduced to a still significant 62 per cent by the following quarter when the monsoon would be in full cry, according to latest assessment by International Research Institute for Climate and Society of Columbia University.

But this is not going to affect the overall precipitation in the country, except that the north-eastern regions and the contiguous Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh will receive above normal rainfall of 38 per cent.

NO DIRECT IMPACT

This is to be expected since a moderate El Nino would not do much harm to the local weather, given in the absence of a direct cause-impact relationship, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

The country's north-east and adjoining Indo-China are sitting ducks for an El Nino, but not the mainland. An El Nino does not necessarily spell drought for India, but a bad drought year would have some bearing brought on to it by one.

The only noticeable change this could induce is the abnormal heating of peninsular India during the summer of 2007.

There's up to 50 per cent chance that the temperature will shoot beyond the normal in the region.

More Rains

Meanwhile, the build-up of wet weather looked complete over south coastal Tamil Nadu on Friday, with forecasts favouring intensification of rainfall over the next three days. Satellite imageries reveal enhanced values for low-level convergence, upper level divergence and vorticity, all of which aid heavy downpour.

In fact, there is flare-up depicted along the Tamil Nadu coast as well as to southeast Arabian Sea, just south of the peninsular tip. Easterlies have worked up a good pace in the region that bristles with cloudiness. The rains are seen relenting after three days.

WESTERLY IN NORTH

The National Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting said that a western disturbance is likely to move slowly in an eastward direction across the hilly region of northwest India. Scattered to fairly wide spread precipitation is likely over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

The rains will be scattered over Uttaranchal during the next two to three days. Parts of adjoining plains in Punjab and Haryana may experience isolated showers. Another westerly system is likely to approach north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir by Tuesday next.

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