The Hindu Business Line : Powering up India

The overwhelming majority by which the United States Senate has passed the India-US nuclear deal is evidence of a marked shift in the policy framework within that country on how to advance the cause of nuclear non-proliferation. The preponderant view, and one which had the enthusiastic support of the present administration, is that India should be treated on a different footing, given its non-proliferation record and its responsible behaviour in international affairs in general. But there are adherents also to the alternative view that any exception made to India may well upset the carefully constructed framework and that too at a time when the international order on the question is facing a growing challenge.

The newfound sense of realism has traditionally been attributed to a number of factors. One, the US needs a credible counter-weight to the prospect of China emerging a global power rivalling itself, and India holds promise of being one such. But, as the argument goes, building India up without a concomitant growth in its economy would be meaningless and an economic growth of the order that would position India as a credible foil to China would require massive investments in power generation. The civil nuclear energy deal provides a leg-up to the efforts in this direction. Also, the argument continues, augmenting the power position through conventional coal power plants has horrendous environmental implications. Of course the increasing influence of Indian Americans in the US electoral politics and the prospect of an affluent India becoming a more promising destination for American goods and services would not hurt.

One can expect a rush from suppliers of sensitive technologies — not just nuclear but also others that were denied access to the Indian market till now. The vote would be seen by them as yet another endorsement of the current US policy of greater engagement with India. Even without the Senate vote there have been some stirrings on this count. Russia, which was not keen on expanding the scope of its cooperation in the Koodankulam nuclear power plant, has now agreed to participate in doubling the plant capacity to 4,000 MW.

Welcome though these developments are, one cannot also dismiss a deeper non-proliferation agenda behind the Senate move. Will India, when accustomed to a sizeable, new power generation capacity post the nuclear deal, be able to ignore any threat of disruption by the US ounder international safeguards in pursuance of its non-proliferation agenda? The Indian atomic energy establishment will have its task cut out in ensuring India's energy security. Not only would it have to overcome technological challenges in completing the nuclear fuel cycle so that the country is not hostage to foreign uranium supplies. It will also have to contend with mounting public expectations in this regard.

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