The Hindu Business Line : Easterlies relenting, buzz shifts to Arabian Sea

The easterly waves are seen relenting over a period of the next four to five days, but some residual precipitation in the southern peninsula is likely to continue for the next two days.

Meanwhile, the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) has picked a feeble `low' brewing in the southeast Arabian Sea over the Lakshadweep Islands.

Updates by India Meteorological Department (IMD) or the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting do not say anything on this. Tagged as `92A Invest' by the FNMOC, the system was traced to the confluence of the 70 deg East Longitude and the 12 deg North Latitude on Sunday.

Graphics put out by the University of Wisconsin-Madison indicated that the system might be coming under the influence of a strong westerly system in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

WESTERLIES STRONG

Given the weakening trend of the easterly wind regime in the peninsula, there is a probability that the Lakshadweep system might just get swayed by the westerlies and be guided to the northeast to set up a landfall over the peninsular west coast.

The Wisconsin-Madison graphics show raised vorticity and low wind shear values along coastal Karnataka. But the landfall is something that needs to be watched out, according to Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology.

AFRICAN `LOW'

He pointed to the presence of another `low' towards farther west, nestling by the side of the Horn of Africa. So long as this system dissipate, the Lakshadweep `low' cannot be expected to move in a westerly direction, away from the peninsular coast.

This scenario is likely to leave the system to linger in the region for sometime, unless not influenced by the weakening low-level easterlies.

TROUGH MAY STAY

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said that the offshore trough on the west coast, which probably houses the `low', is likely to persist for the rest of the week. It shows the possibility of a system showing up to the far west Arabian Sea by Sunday next, again by the side of the Africa coast.

The NCMRWF said that night temperatures in northwest India are likely to fall by 2-3 deg C during the next two days due to the passage of a western disturbance from Jammu and Kashmir.

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