The Hindu Business Line : Poor getting richer, yet falling behind

The share of the poor as a percentage of GDP for slowly growing States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh will fall from 20.5 to 12.8 per cent between 2001 and 2021, while the share of the rapidly growing States of Delhi, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal will rise from 34.1 to 39.6 per cent.

The findings

These findings were concluded by a study conducted by the EPW Research Foundation in consultation with State Governments and the National Accounts Division of the CSO.

The population projections made by the census authorities reveal that over the same period the population of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh — which account for one-third of total population — will increase by 37 per cent, as against a 27 per cent increase in the States that are growing fast.

Hence the per capita GDP of poor States will fall further behind for two reasons. One, because growth is slow; and two, population increase — though on the decline is still relatively rapid.

The per capita GDP of poor States will fall further behind for two reasons. One , because growth is slow, and two, population increase which though on the decline is still relatively rapid.

There is some good news as well. Per capita GDP in the slowly growing States, too, will increase by 54 per cent. But this will not stop the `perception deficit' from rising.

A tug of war between economics and politics is on the cards.