The Hindu Business Line : Climate in north `just good' for rabi wheat

Winter weather in the region is dictated by western disturbances (WDs), which are low-pressure systems originating in the Mediterranean Sea or the West Atlantic. They roll over across Iran and western Pakistan to make their way in along the northwest border of the country.

They join monsoons, cyclones and severe thunderstorms in modulating weather over the mainland. WDs are counterparts of `easterly waves' that periodically affect south peninsular India.

In fact, one such approaching easterly trough over the Bay of Bengal is predicted to cause light to moderate rain over Tamil Nadu around the weekend (December 22-23), says Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

GOOD FREQUENCY

The frequency and intensity of the WDs in the North and the resultant precipitation have been just right for rabi wheat so far this year.

If this were to hold for the crucial months of January and February, which consensus predictions by major weather models seem to indicate, the country might well be heading for a bumper rabi wheat crop.

EARLY TO CALL

But it is too early to take a call just yet, cautioned Dr Gupta. Official statistics suggest that farmers have so far planted wheat on an additional 22 lakh hectares this year.

As on Friday last, a total 232.59 lakh hectares are reported to have been brought under cover, which is 10.4 per cent more than last year.

Nearly 90 per cent of the normal area of 260.50 lakh hectares has already been covered.

The major wheat-growing belt of Punjab-Haryana-Uttar Pradesh has witnessed cyclical variations in temperature and precipitation levels, which is perfectly normal during winter. These crucial weather parameters fluctuate in accordance with the `arrival' and `passage' phases of an incoming WD.

No big rainfall event has been reported in the north and northwest so far, but whatever light precipitation has taken place is just enough to hold the crop in good stead, Dr Gupta said.

NO `BLCOKADES'

The long-term average of two or three WDs passing during a winter month has been largely maintained so far. This is quite unlike two years back when a semi-permanent trough across the northwest border `blocked' the passage of WDs and caused the temperatures over the plains to rise to the discomfort of the standing crop.

The normal WD regime also helps by dropping just the right amount of snow in the hilly regions of the north, says Dr Gupta. Runoff is prevented to a large extent in this manner, while, crucially, the "permanent ice" deposits in the depths witness welcome accretions.

SNOWFALL EVENT

Meanwhile, Dr Gupta has forecast a major snowfall event for the hills of Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal around Christmas time (December 25). This will have major implications for the seasonal tourist traffic to the two hilly States this year.

Expected to begin around the evening of December 24 (Sunday), the snowfall could extend into the forenoon of December 27. It will taper off with the expected passage of the causative western disturbance to the east.

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