The Hindu Business Line : Short supply seen lasting in rubber till 2020

Natural rubber will be in short supply during the next 14 years, according to a study by the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG). Though the difference between production and consumption would be 4 lakh tonnes in 2010, it might increase to 15 lakh tonnes in 2020, IRSG observed.

The observations were prepared in November by the 19-member body, including India, after assessing the situation in major rubber-producing and consuming countries. Though there was no substantial improvement in area expansion at the global level, there had been large-scale increase in production during the 10-year period ended in 2005.

In 1995, production was 60.7 lakh tonnes. It went up to 88 lakh tonnes in 2005 registering an increase of 45 per cent. It was due to the higher productivity, the global production during the last ten years touched a higher level.

The price recorded during the last two years in fact encouraged the rubber cultivation. Many counties have come forward to undertake rubber cultivation in suitable areas. The area expansion, which remained almost inactive during the last 10 years, would gather momentum in the coming years, IRSG said. As a result, global production would be 101 lakh tonnes in 2010, 113 lakh tonnes in 2013 and 129 lakh tonnes in 2020.

According to the assessment of the IRSG, consumption would outstrip production. During the 10-year period ended in 2005, consumption rose by 51 per cent. The consumption of NR, which was 59.5 lakhs tonnes in 1995, reached 90 lakhs tonnes in 2005. It would further reach 144 lakh tonnes in 2020 as estimated by the IRSG.

Compared to synthetic, the demand for NR is soaring. Of the total consumption including synthetic, the share of NR in 1995 was 39 per cent which enhanced to 43 per cent in 2005. It will further go up to 45 per cent in 2020, said the IRSG.