The Hindu Business Line : Winter rains in North hit as South goes without cyclones

Lack of severe weather activity during the post-monsoon period may have robbed the mainland of the moisture that feeds into western disturbances to cause winter precipitation in the north.

Sustained rains have been largely confined to the hilly regions and the foothills in Punjab. Plains in other parts of Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh have gone largely dry, with only light showers having been reported from isolated places.

This state of affairs could be attributed to an `uneventful' northeast monsoon (that followed the southwest monsoon) in peninsular India, says Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

Normally, land-falling cyclones in the south pump in oodles of moisture over north peninsular and central India, which gets in turn precipitated as rain in the north. But the northeast monsoon has not so far witnessed a single cyclone cross the southeast coast.

The only exception was Cyclone Ogni, which cranked up suitable wind speeds only briefly along the circuitous route from the Lakshadweep Sea before crossing the Andhra Pradesh coast.

Rain in south

Tamil Nadu and Kerala may have received `excess' to `normal' rain during the northeast monsoon, but these States are historically known beneficiaries of the season. Crucially enough, large parts of central and north peninsular India were left high and dry.

In the normal case, these areas benefit from land-falling cyclones over the southeast peninsular coast and associated moisture content. This moisture stays in the air long enough to be appropriated by western disturbances that cross in from the northwest border to herald winter in the north.

These winter rains are a godsend for the rabi wheat in that it affords one round of `free' irrigation and also makes available dopes of atmospheric nitrogen getting trapped in the falling rain.

Luxury denied

Farmers benefit from this in two ways - in not having to resort to irrigation by other means adding to costs, and in terms of reduced urea consumption. But these luxuries have been denied to them at least so far during the ongoing season.

But Dr Gupta did not see cause for worry since the winter-driving western disturbances have largely kept the desired level of frequency. Consensus predictions are that they would stick to the schedule going forward, which should ensure ideally low temperatures to prevail and even cause rain in the region.

Significantly, no `blocking high' is forecast to develop as had happened two years back when western disturbances were forced to stay put across the northwest border. This had created a long, dry pause in the climes in the north, forcing the mercury to shoot up.

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