The Hindu Business Line : EU is no Turkish delight

The long delay in Turkey becoming part of the European Union is bureaucratic, rather than political or strategic. For its own good the EU must find a way out of this muddle as it has as much to gain as Turkey.

Geographically they may be separated by a sliver of sea but ideologically they could well be in different worlds. This is perhaps the bleak truth of Turkey's prospects of being the European Union's first mainly Muslim member.

Straddling south-eastern Europe and south-western Asia, Turkey is for the West the Gateway to Asia. But the country itself has European aspirations. After all, the portion of Turkey west of the Bosporus is geographically part of Europe, bordering the Black Sea, between Bulgaria and Georgia, and abutting the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, between Greece and Syria. The European portion, known as Thrace, encompasses 3 per cent of the total area but is home to more than 10 per cent of the total population. The ascension to the EU is however proving difficult with several members leaning against the door.

Stumbling blocks

The membership talks had opened, after much procrastination, in October 2005, only to be tripped by Turkey's rejection of the EU demand that it fulfil its obligation to open its ports and airports to traffic from Cyprus (the internationally recognised Greek-Cypriot republic, that is). Ankara refused to accede to this till the EU ended the trade embargo on Turkish northern Cyprus.

The other stumbling block, according to the EU, is that Turkey's efforts to bring its laws in line with European standards have slowed; especially rankling is Ankara's reluctance to repeal a law which the EU says undermines freedom of speech.

On December 11, the European Commission sought to punish Turkey by suspending eight of the 35 chapters, as the policy areas are called, in the membership talks, followed by the French President, Mr Jacques Chirac, and the German Chancellor, Ms Angela Merkel, calling for a full review of Turkey's progress in early 2009.

Finnish efforts to broker an agreement made little headway, as a Turkish offer to open one port and one airport to Cyprus depended on a reciprocal offer by the Greek-Cypriots. Turkey cannot be blamed if it feels short-changed over Cyprus, as the Greek-Cypriots got EU membership though they voted in April 2004 against the Kofi Annan plan to reunite the island, but not the Turkish-Cypriots though they voted in favour.

Bitter in Turkey

The feeling in Turkey is one of bitterness, and most people are beginning to believe that the country's detractors simply do not want a large, Muslim country in their midst. Indeed there have been murmurs inside the EU against Turkey.

These have ranged from Turkey is not being culturally "European;" that it will cause a wave of immigrants; that widening the EU to include Turkey will prevent further deepening of political and economic union; to that Turkey is too big, and will therefore exercise too much power within the EU or that it is too poor, and will cost the rest of the EU too much.

What a former European Commission President, Mr Jacques Delors, once said about the EU being a `Christian club' would seem to be the view still held in some European Christian Democrat parties.

This is not too fair to Turkey. For, the country has gone through the gruelling joining process. From first becoming an associate member in 1963, to applying for full membership in 1987 and then becoming in 1992 the first associate country to sign the Customs Union agreement band before becoming a full member, the secular, democratic Turkey has been part of the EU process for 40 years. Moreover, it has been a NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) ally since 1952. Indeed, the West used Turkey to defend its eastern flank against the then-Soviet Union. And, more recently, Turkey was a key staging ground for NATO forces in the Gulf wars.

Little wonder that many in Turkey see the EU tactics aimed at making Ankara walk away in disgust. But the Turkish Prime Minister, Mr Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is not ready to oblige. He has made clear his intention to pursue the membership goal. Mr Erdogan's stand received the backing of the country's top ministers and generals on Thursday, when a National Security Council meeting said the, "country maintains its commitment to the aim of EU membership" and was "continuing to work toward that aim with determination."

Upbeat economy

Mr Erdogan's confidence perhaps stems from the economy's performance; it has grown at 7 per cent every year since 2001. This is four times the EU rate. Markets are quite unperturbed over the EU membership row; indeed, the Turkish lira is holding strong against the dollar. But the economic progress will depend much on whether Mr Erdogan persists with the IMF-imposed reforms. Though the economy may be doing well, EU membership would give its modernising effort a leg up. Membership of the EU's single market would be a big incentive, as also the freedom to travel or work in other countries, without applying for a visa.

Now, the hope for Turkey is the telephone diplomacy by the US President, Mr George Bush, who is to call the EU headquarters and Continental capitals. But, according to observers, Mr Bush can at best de-freeze the number of frozen chapters. But the suspended chapters can be reopened only with the unanimous approval of all EU members. Thereby hangs a significant imponderable. Post-Iraq fiasco, it is not clear what sort of weight Mr Bush still carries.

Enlargement debate

The Turkey issue has raised a larger question about EU's enlargement. For, there are problems with other prospective members as well. For instance, Brussels is unsure about what to do with Serbia after talks with it over an association agreement were suspended in May. Or indeed with Kosovo.

The expansion rests on the logic that it is economically advantageous for both members and aspirants; what can be more rewarding than larger markets? But the process, more than being political or strategic, is bureaucratic. It demands good house- and book-keeping. Admitted countries are expected generally to play by the Brussels-set rules (though not all). But this becomes difficult when the EU demands go against the domestic or foreign-policy concerns of a prospective member; surely everything cannot be subordinated to broader concerns. And when Brussels refuses to resile from its bureaucratic obduracy, obviously the member-in-waiting has to do just that — wait.

For its own good the EU must find a way out of the bureaucratic muddle of its making. Besides the loss of market, the political chaos that could be unleashed should the EU idea unravel, is difficult to imagine.

Turkey could be an excellent test case. And the EU has as much to gain as Turkey. For, Turkey can forge a bond between the West and the Muslim world, and help spread stability in the volatile region. Also, Turkey's young and increasingly well-educated population can help the EU cope with the problem of an ageing population.

With ascension holding so much of potential, both the EU and Turkey must show more maturity. Ankara must prove its good intentions, especially vis-a-vis pursuing EU-suggested reforms. Brussels must demonstrate to Turks looking for a full modern democracy, that membership of the EU is the best bet.

Compiled by J. Srinivasan

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