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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Jan. 10

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said in its update on Wednesday that the El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific has showed signs of weakening, but stopped short of giving the all clear just yet.

A renewed but temporary strengthening of the event cannot be ruled out for a month or two before it finally dissipates.

This is due to the prevalence of strong westerly winds off Indonesia, which can unsettle key ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) indicators.

Since late November, near equatorial sea-surface temperatures have cooled by about 0.1 to 0.4°C, and significant weakening of warm anomalies has been recorded. The trade winds have been stronger than normal across the western and central Pacific.

Monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values were neutral for both November and December. Negative values of SOI are associated with a prevailing El Nino condition.

The El Nino may have peaked, but associated warm conditions are seen continuing until May. It has already impacted winter weather in both the US and Europe where mercury has been hovering above the seasonal normal since November last.

WARMEST YEAR

In fact, the UK Met Office (UKMO) has gone on to predict that 2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998.

Each January the Met Office issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as solar effects, El Nino, greenhouse gases concentrations and other influences.

The UKMO statement said that the potential for a warmer 2007 arises partly from a moderate-strength El Nino already established in the Pacific.

The lag between El Nino and the full global surface temperature response means that the warming effect of El Nino is extended and, therefore, has a greater influence on the global temperatures during the year.

Over the previous seven years, the Met Office forecast of annual global temperature has proved remarkably accurate, with a mean forecast error size of just 0.06 °C.

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No `all clear' on El Nino front just yet

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