The Hindu Business Line : Mixed outlook for rainfall next week

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Thiruvananthapuram Feb. 3 The busy western disturbance (WD) season continues to hold in North and Northwest India, with each reported arrival bringing the steaming front of the system in play, dictating weather in the region.

The arrival phase causes mercury to shoot up by five to eight degree C, but there is nothing unusual about this, says Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology.

A prevailing westerly trough in the north is still in the process of ambling moving away to the east; seasonal cold air can fill only after the system has moved away in its entirety. This explains the warmer climes in the north and northwest that seem to have raised the hackles of rabi crop watchers.

According to the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), another western disturbance, though weak, is approaching Jammu and Kashmir. This will expectedly bring some rain and snowfall in the hilly regions in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh over the next two days.

Being weak, it will leave only residual cloudiness to cover the plains, wringed as it will be of whatever moisture it may have had in the hills. This cloud cover will cause the mercury to rise by two to three degree C over northwest India and the plains.

The next western disturbance is due to arrive by February 9, which means that the mercury could get back to normal, if not below, for a brief period in between.

According to Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com, heat is now over South Asia, where it should not be. A strong high pressure aloft, together with the lack of any cold intrusions from central Asia, could be the likely culprit.

As for rainfall potential for Pakistan and North India for the second week of February, he said the forecast rainfall is likely to wax and wane. The winter has been unusually dry this year, despite the weather-driving western disturbances. In its latest update, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Friday that there has been a sustained cooling of the equatorial Pacific since early December, with current sea-surface temperature anomalies now close to their El Nino thresholds.

This is the clearest sign that the El Nino event is weakening. In addition to the surface cooling, there has been substantial cooling below the surface, a situation that is likely to promote further weakening of the surface El Nino pattern. Computer modelling supports the view that the El Nino will continue to decline.

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