The Hindu Business Line : Sena on the march in Maharashtra

The real reason for the Shiv Sena's revival, some argue, is not the failure of the two Congresses to come together but the psyche of the average Maharashtrian, who looks at the Sena as a `protector'.

THE SAFFRON causes a flutter. — Shashi Ashiwal

Maharashtra has snubbed the Congress in the civic polls by virtually giving the Shiv Sena-BJP the Mumbai Municipality, a victory in Nagpur and leads in Thane, Nashik and Ulhasnagar Coming as they do before a slew of Assembly elections in important States, including Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, the results are a clear discomfiture to the Congress.

This proves yet again that a Congress in power is its worst enemy; it starts to think that it can win any poll contesting on its own only to bite the dust. In the instance case, the voters also proved the blunder of the Congress decision not to make even a half-hearted attempt to forge an alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) that was already peeved at the former for grabbing the chief ministership though the NCP had won more seats.

The tally

Call it poll arithmetic and the failure of the two `secular' parties to come together, the helplessness of the Mumbai voter vis-à-vis a desirable alternative, or the Shiv Sena's image as a protector of Marathi interest, the voters of Mumbai gave the Congress only 71 seats against the Shiv Sena's 84; the BJP notched up 28 against the NCP'14 seats. The Sena-BJP combine, though just shy of a simple majority, retained the prestigious Mumbai Corporation for a third successive term, rubbishing the anti-incumbency factor so integral to all elections.

But it must be noted that the Congress(I) actually improved its tally in the Mumbai Corporation from 62 to 71, while the NCP managed to get only one additional seat. So for all practical purposes the Congress-NCP alliance would have benefited the smaller party more, particularly given that the NCP chief, Mr Shard Pawar, would have driven a hard bargain and forced the Congress to part with more seats.

The Congress may have done better but, as some Maharashtra watchers argue, the real reason for the Sena's revival is not the failure of the two Congresses to come together but the psyche of the average Marathi who looks at the Sena as a `protector'; also they did not go all out to defeat the saffron combine by coming together as allies.

So, then, to the Congress, which is firmly in the saddle at the Centre and done a fairly decent job in running a coalition government, goes the credit of recapturing two bastions.

Reduced to a shadow

The Shiv Sena has been reduced to a shadow of its original self, first, by the revolt of Mr Narayan Rane, who crossed over with followers to the Congress, and later the Sena supremo, Mr Bal Thackerary's nephew, Raj Thackeray.

As for the BJP, it has never really recovered from its defeat in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls. Once the protective shield of power was so rudely snatched away, a host of internal differences and bickering surfaced to result in the sidelining of its only statesman, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the political isolation of its Loh Purush, Mr L. K.Advani, and the expulsion of the fiery sanyasin, Uma Bharti, making a mockery of the BJP's favourite tagline — `Party with a difference!'

So the Grand Old party was quite ready to believe that the Sena-BJP combine was a spent force, that Mubaikars were fed up of the Sena's stranglehold over the Mumbai Municipal Corporation for 10 long years and that it would able to wrest power easily. So it didn't bother to forge an alliance with the NCP.

Marathi psyche

But not just the division of the anti Sena-BJP votes among the secular parties — even the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party managed to get a toehold in Maharashtra civic bodies — that helped the Sena. Rather the feeling among the urban middle-classes that if they or their cities are in trouble, they can count on the Sena to come to their rescue. Mumbaikars might grumble about the civic body's failure to give decent roads, the corruption and, above all, the collapse of the drainage and sewerage systems that resulted in the unprecedented flooding of Mumbai the last two monsoons, but obviously they also see value in the Sena, however weakened it might be.

Though Mr Bal Thackeray himself said that he was "astonished" at the Sena-BJP's victory in Mumbai, a smug Uddhav Thackeray, Sena's Executive President, took this opportunity to rubbish his detractors, particularly cousin and bete noir, Raj Thackeray, saying that the "Sena is still strong, and has given a befitting reply" to those who had written its obituaries.

Though there is no excuse for the Congress and the NCP to contest against each other in a State where they run a coalition government, the Sena victory is an indicator that even in the most cosmopolitan of Indian cities, regional sentiments and aspirations capture the psyche of the population. And, the `sons-of-the-soil' theory, however pernicious and divisive it might be for national integrity and unity, can and does fetch votes.

A softer pitch

This time around the Sena may not have been strident in its "Maharasthra for Marathis" demand as in the past, and may have taken a softer stance vis-à-vis the North and South Indian communities living in Maharashtra, especially Mumbai. But so well known are its views on this subject that the Marathis who feel marginalised in an increasingly cosmopolitan Mumbai obviously voted for the saffron party.

In a column in an English daily, Loksatta editor Kumar Ketkar argues that it was not the failure of the Congress and the NCP to forge an alliance that helped the Sena but the growing feeling among Mumbai's Marathis that they are being marginalised as the booming business capital plays host to a growing population of non-Marathis. "In the last two decades the Marathi-speaking people have been driven out to suburbs and central and south Mumbai occupied by the neo-rich. The New Economy has made south and central Mumbai more cosmopolitan (meaning less Marathi)." This, he argues, is primarily because of the collapse of the textile industry which was manned mainly by Marathis. As the lower and middle-class Marathis sold their homes in south and central Mumbai and moved to the suburbs, the space was occupied by the new rich. Mr Ketkar argues that though the Marathi middle-class has been a big beneficiary of the New Economy, the perception is that the Marathis are marginalised, and "it is this feeling on which the Sena thrives."

Such an argument might provide comfort to the Congress(I), which might even argue that after all it has only improved its position in the Mumbai Corporation. But in a system where the winner takes all, this doesn't count for much.

Also, whether the Maharashtra Congressmen like it or not, the party's defeat at the hands of the Sena-BJP combine will be seen to have relevance outside the State and on the larger electoral canvass of India. Only time will tell how costly this infusion of a fresh dose of enthusiasm and confidence in the Sena-BJP leadership and cadres will prove for the Congress.

Dangerous portend

Another dangerous portend is the flaring up of passion in any native-versus-outsiders debate. We saw in Assam the disastrous consequences of the ULFA applying the same logic against Biharis who had to flee for their lives. And let's not forget that the people who were targeted and killed and the larger numbers who were chased out were not recent migrant labour but those who had lived in Assam for decades.

As India marches ahead with confidence in the new century, with pride in its skilled and trained manpower, the amazing entrepreneurial capability of Indians so tellingly captured by the enterprising spirit of the quintessential Mumbaikar, and the ability of Indians to work and excel from any corner of the world, the last thing it needs is polarisation along narrow regional or communal lines.

But don't expect our politicians — saffron, secular, green or any other hue — to help in this cause. Their self-proclaimed mandate is to sow division among people and reap a rich harvest of votes. This time it may be the saffron brigade, next time around it might be the `saviours' of the minorities, and yet another time that of the Dalits. India divided along these lines keeps them in power, and to them power is all that matters.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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