The Hindu Business Line : Dire warming

Last week's release of the report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the latest and the severest warning that time is running out for efforts to prevent an apocalypse that could end human civilisation — perhaps even snuff out life as we know it from the planet. Many of the 2500 scientists from 130 countries who have worked on the report have been quoted as saying that the world has only 10 years to initiate measures to control climate-change. Else, the chances of keeping global warming within manageable limits will slim, which would turn many parts of the planet uninhabitable.

The report — the first instalment of the Panel's findings — focuses on the what and why of the global warming phenomenon. Another report to be published later in the year will deal with what should be done to control most effectively global warming so that, among the first objectives, the process of climate-change does not get out of hand, with disastrous implications for mankind. The situation is in fact so critical now that, in the words of the report, "anthropogenic warming and sea-level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised." This means work will have to be intensified to control, as a first step, carbon emissions. This in fact was the objective of the Kyoto Protocol on climate-change, an international effort which has been stymied by the decision of the US to disassociate itself from the code on the ground that both poor and rich alike should contribute more equitably — than what has been suggested by the Protocol — to cleanse the atmosphere. Australia is the only other developed country that has refused to sign the Protocol on the plea that it "does not include the world's major polluters".

Clearly, the global picture regarding climate-change and its impact on mankind is scary, and is in fact getting scarier as more scientific details are discovered. As for India, according to one study, the economy stands to lose as much as 9 per cent of GDP mainly because of submergence of coastal areas due to warming. Other studies have focused on the more direct consequences such as the impact on agricultural production (a 40 per cent fall in rice production, for example) due to flooding owing to unseasonal downpours, and bloated rivers caused by rapidly melting glaciers. One clear policy option before New Delhi is to hasten, on an emergency footing, the adoption of clean-technology by industry generally which, though costly to begin with, will not only increase efficiencies but also improve the chances of survival of the human race on the planet by reducing solar heat-trapping carbon emissions.

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