The Hindu Business Line : Incoming westerly system features embedded `low'

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Thiruvananthapuram Feb. 9 The incoming `biggie' western disturbance now features an embedded `low' in what is considered a sure-fire indicator of a busy but brief wet session for Northwest India starting this weekend.

An `active' system, the most potent among the three types of western disturbances that cross into the country, invariably throws up an induced `low' over Pakistan and adjoining North Rajasthan or Haryana.

An induced cyclonic circulation is hybrid in nature in that it displays tropical and extra-tropical features. It helps `steer' the parent trough to suitably settle into position and `switch on' local weather.

The eastward-bound system is known to interact with a resident monsoon/pre-monsoon circulation over the Indian landmass to drive up activity manifold. But there is no such resident system existing currently in the North or Northwest. A circulation over Assam and Meghalaya to far to the east became less marked overnight.

An update from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) on Friday said the deep westerly system and the induced circulation had parked themselves over West Rajasthan and adjoining Central Pakistan. The combine is expected to move further north-northeast in India.

Under its influence, widespread with isolated heavy snowfall/rainfall is likely over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal during the next three days. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and the Northeastern States.

Scattered rainfall is likely over Orissa, North Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and even Vidarbha. Fog may develop over East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar early next week.

"Most welcome rain for the plains in the north and the northwest," said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology. This will provide a badly needed break from a long and largely dry winter so far this season. Rainfall deficit is up to 100 per cent over most part of the region.

Dr Ramesh downplayed the perceived threat to standing crops from a hailstorm forecast to break out of the westerly system. There was hardly any surface heating available in the Northwest, which ruled out deep convection and a consequential hailstorm.

Hail forms always in thunderstorm clouds, particularly those with intense updrafts, high liquid water content, good vertical extent and large water droplets. East and northeast India has heated up to some extent, providing the enabling environment for hail to occur in tandem with the arrival of the westerly. A preceding system is currently active in this region and has already caused some precipitation.

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