The Hindu Business Line : Disrupting samjhauta

There is little doubt that the bomb blasts on the Samjhauta Express on Sunday night — which killed more than 66 passengers and the maimed perhaps a much larger number — will affect adversely the current diplomatic process between New Delhi and Islamabad. In fact, some observers maintain that this was perhaps the main target of the perpetrators of the deed. Indeed, the very fact that this particular train was chosen for the explosions suggests that those who masterminded the job were aiming at muddying the waters further in the negotiating process involving the two countries.

This much is self-evident but not much more, especially as regards the identity of the killers and their specific objective within the larger India-Pakistan framework. However, the timing of the incident is important because it throws light on the probable reason or reasons for the attack, which in all probability had something to do with the visit of the Pakistan Foreign Minister, Mr Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri, and the first meeting of the joint India-Pakistan anti-terror mechanism slated to be held early next month.

The Timing

The subject of timing can be broken up into further detail. If the two events just mentioned have anything to do with the blasts, then the killers had a choice — to stage the attack before the Kasuri visit (thereby putting India-Pakistan relations generally on a pedestal and blurring the real intention, if any) or to act after the visit but before the meeting (in which case a firm finger would have been pointed at the March anti-terrorism joint mechanism meeting). A third choice would be to trigger the bombs after the two events which would more or less have had the impact of the first timing-scenario, that is, targeting broadly the India-Pakistan negotiating process.

The thesis submitted here is that the target of the attack on the Samjhauta Express was none other than the anti-terrorism joint-mechanism meeting, the precise objective being to drive home the point to the Indian side (and the world) that not every act of terrorism in Indian is committed by Pakistan-based terrorist groups — a point which has been made before (especially after the Mumbai train blasts last year which led to the death of more than 200 people). Incidentally, it will be pertinent to remember that the anti-terrorism joint mechanism was born after the Mumbai carnage and that the March meeting would be its first.

ISI hand?

Since both Pakistanis and Indians died in the Samjhauta blasts, the perpetrators would probably have reasoned that this would strengthen Islamabad's defence that it was unfair always to blame Pakistan-based terrorists for such action. If this is so, it will not be far-fetched to suggest that the ISI itself was involved (mainly because of its official status with over-arching policy-formulation responsibilities), and that in this case it acted through its local operatives in India without perhaps involving the known Pakistan-based terrorist to any great extent.

Quite clearly, the Indian authorities will have to do a thorough check on the whereabouts and preoccupations of known ISI operatives and suspects in the country as a whole and not just in the northern part. With such a terrorist act in its pocket, in which both Indians and Pakistanis have been victims, it will be much easier for Islamabad to argue at the March anti-terrorism joint mechanism meeting that India-based terrorist groups could have been primarily responsible for the 2006 Mumbai blasts, among others.

Ranabir Ray Choudhury

More Stories on : Terrorism | Railways | View Point

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Will it make the grade?

Why do killers kill?

Can India sustain over 8% growth?

Sugar: A bitter-sweet policy

Needed, a water policy that taps private sector

Disrupting samjhauta

A tariff to ensure transparency in the power sector

Selective taxation