The Hindu Business Line : Easterly wave may impact peninsula by weekend

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Thiruvananthapuram, Feb. 20 An incoming easterly wave, the first of the year, is likely to affect extreme south peninsula from the weekend causing scattered rain and thundershowers.

The wave will be borne out of an extensive trough of low-pressure linking the South Pacific and the Western Indian Ocean that is already in place, said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology.

Easterly waves are quite normal for this time of the year though less in number than early winter. The north-easterly winds could also mop up moisture content spilling out from the rain-driving Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Around the same time, North and northwest India will also see scattered to fairly widespread snowfall/rainfall triggered by western disturbances following one after the other and crossing in from the border. One such system will move in and hold sway for the next 24 to 36 hours. Mercury will move up to coincide with the arrival phase, and rains/snowfall is expected to buffet Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal. The second system will likely to feature an induced cyclonic circulation promising still more widespread rainfall.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal.

Scattered thundershowers have been forecast for Punjab, North Rajasthan, Haryana and adjoining West Uttar Pradesh for at least two days from Sunday.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this system will travel to the east and create `some weather' over the Bihar/Jharkhand area as well.

HEATING BLUES

According to Dr Ramesh, model predictions suggest that the prevailing El Nino conditions may die out by May, to coincide with the arrival phase of the southwest monsoon. One disconcerting regional feature is the above normal snowfall in the Himalayas that could compromise the pre-monsoon heating of the landmass.

Heating is required to establish the ideal temperature gradient that sets up the monsoon in the first place. Normally, the plains in the North and Northwest provide the `heat engine,' which causes the air to rise to be replaced by the monsoon current from the southwest or southeast.

But the massive snowfall on a scale not witnessed in decades at places like Shimla and Darjeeling does not augur well for the heating process. There are, however, forecasts that the southern peninsula will witness above normal temperatures from March and leading into the monsoon onset phase.

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