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Vinson Kurian

Warming trend in equator and east Pacific `fast diminishing'

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Thiruvananthapuram Feb. 23 The 2006-07 El Nino has ended, according to an assessment by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

This goes to confirm a recent forecast put out by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction and Society at the Columbia University, which said that the warming trend in the equatorial and east Pacific `was fast diminishing'.

In fact, the BoM went on to support the IRI outlook for a La Nina event, the cold counterpart of El Nino, developing sooner than later. The probability is thought to be higher than the long-term average (which is about one in five). La Nina has a tendency to follow close on the heels of an El Nino.

The BoM further said that El Nino conditions have decayed earlier than normal thereby giving time for a La Nina to begin developing during the critical March to June period. A large pool of cold sub-surface water has developed in the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

A full-blown La Nina year has coincided with a successful Indian monsoon with a warming anomaly and associated cloudiness becoming typically prominent over the nearest western Pacific. This is matched by a corresponding cooling of the seawaters off the Peru coast in the extreme east Pacific.

Interestingly, a locally evolving weather anomaly in the Bay of Bengal known to precede a would-be La Nina year was conspicuous by its near-total absence during the 2006 northeast monsoon season.

Expressed as `La Nina minus one', this season typically sees the Bay of Bengal go on a roll, producing storm after storm — as in 2005 that witnessed one of the strongest ever. This had nicely fallen into a list of seasons preceding a La Nina year, although various weather models sparred over its strength/vitality.

The 2006 southwest monsoon did not disappoint either, running up to 100.7 per cent in the final analysis. The precipitation was in excess over Northwest India, another feature associated with La Nina.

Cooling anomaly

But forecasters said that they could not judge impending monsoon merely based on the fact that a `La Nina minus one' did or did not occur. The focus must first shift to the cooling anomaly in the east Pacific and the corresponding warming of the western Pacific.

In any case, most computer models predict `cool neutral' conditions in the first half of 2007. All the main indicators show that neutral conditions have already returned to the Pacific Basin.

Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Nino thresholds for about a month now. Computer models indicate further cooling in the Pacific.

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El Nino dies out `earlier than normal'

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