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Vinson Kurian

Bihar, Bengal, Orissa, N-E States may get rainfall

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Thiruvananthapuram March 2 All-India winter rainfall deficit has shrunk to 22 per cent as of February-end with a reigning barrage of western disturbances got back to doing what they know best - raining all over the hills and the plains of the North and Northwest India.

This is quite significant, coming it as it does after an alarmingly dry January caused rainfall deficits to mount to almost 100 per cent over most parts of the region. Weather "switching off" in this manner had created panic in the highest echelons of the Government during a regular "Crop Watch" meeting held in early February, sources told Business Line.

A perturbed Union Agriculture Ministry was preparing for the worst, when it was told during the meeting that a big-amplitude western disturbance was expected to cross into the country during the first week of February. This was capable of `creating some weather' at last, after January saw mercury galloping by five to six degrees above normal, the Ministry was informed.

Predictions proved more than right with the incoming `biggie' western disturbance bringing late-season rains that sustained for almost a week. Another productive westerly, though not as big, rained an encore not much later, preventing a moisture stress-like situation from developing in the region.

On Friday, a third round of precipitation triggered by the latest in the series was holding good in the region. All these three systems had one common factor - an induced cyclonic circulation embedded into them. Moisture feeds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal helped beef up these circulations.

Rains from this system are about to move into the east. Scattered to fairly widespread thundershowers will now affect Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa and the Northeastern States over the next 24 to 36 hours.

According to Mr J.V. Singh of the National centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), yet another system would impact Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on Saturday and Sunday. But it will move away to east-northeast without affecting the plains.

Predictions suggest that the weather is likely to be mainly fair over the entire country for four to five days from Saturday, except over the Northeastern States and the hilly regions of Northwest India. The `Holi' festivities in North India on Sunday would most likely be free from weather blues, said Mr Singh.

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Winter rain deficit shrinks

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