The Hindu Business Line : As the US mounts pressure — Musharraf embarks on Iranian containment

Even as some of our television channels are asserting that the Pakistani President, Gen Pervez Musharraf, is India's "best bet" for peace and harmony in the region, scholars in Pakistan seem to think otherwise.

In his book Frontline Pakistan about the mutually reinforcing links between the ISI and jihadis, Pakistani journalist Zahid Hussain writes: "A major reason for Musharraf's failure to root out extremism and jihadi forces is lack of consistency in his policies. Most of his actions lack commitment, having been undertaken under pressure from the US and the international community."

Tactical Policy

Zahid Hussain terms Gen Musharraf's policies in the American "War on Terror" as "tactical". This should be evident from the fact that less than 24 hours after the visit of the US Vice-President, Mr Dick Cheney, to Islamabad to deliver a tough message that the US Congress would withhold military and economic aid to Pakistan if it did not end its support to the Taliban, the Pakistan authorities arrested Mullah Obaidullah Akhund, one of the top three members of the Taliban's leadership council.

It is no secret that Quetta has remained the hideout for Taliban leaders ever since they were thrown out of Afghanistan, in December 2001. Gen Musharraf has provided sanctuary and support to the Taliban for five years on Pakistani soil, in the belief that the Americans could be kept happy by periodically arresting second-rank Al Qaeda leaders.

Stuck in a quagmire in Iraq, the Americans turned a blind eye to the Taliban build up in Waziristan and Balochistan for over four years. But in 2006, the Taliban emerged a potent force, attacking American-led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) forces all along Afghanistan's border regions with Pakistan, with many of its Pakistani volunteers prepared to undertake suicide attacks on the Americans and their British and Canadian allies. Faced with the prospect of heavy casualties in Afghanistan, an angered US Congress warned that it would make aid to Pakistan conditional on an effective Pakistani crackdown on the Taliban.

Best bet yet

Already under pressure from domestic public opinion on Iraq, the US President, Mr George Bush, was forced to acknowledge that the man whom the US Secretary of State, Ms Condoleezza Rice, has described as America's "stalwart ally" in the "war on terrorism" was actually double-crossing him, by aiding the Taliban. When polite messages asking Pakistan to "do more" against the Taliban failed, Mr Cheney descended on Islamabad. But it would naïve to believe that merely because of these developments the US is looking for "regime change" in Islamabad. Gen Musharraf remains America's "best bet" in Pakistan. The reasons appear all too obvious.

Even as it seeks to extricate itself from Iraq, the Bush Administration is determined to force Iran to comply with its demands on ending its nuclear enrichment and reprocessing programmes.

The Iranian role in arming the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the extremist Shia groups in Iraq and backing the hardliners in Palestinian ranks has prompted an American response designed to contain and destabilise Iran.

In diplomatic terms, this has involved putting together an alliance of "moderate" Sunni states. At its Doha Summit, the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) comprising Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates demanded the establishment of a Persian/Arab Gulf nuclear weapons free zone. Egypt and Jordan have joined this GCC effort, with the Arabs making it clear that they would seek matching capabilities if Iran proceeded on its present path.

0In Iraq, the Americans have "persuaded" Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki to bring together Iran and its ally Syria with the five Permanent Members of the Security Council, Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbours, the Arab League and select Islamic countries in a conference to promote peace and stability in Iraq. Iran will find itself rather isolated is such a gathering.

Musharraf's effort

What has the contribution of Gen Musharraf in "Sunni containment" of Shia Iran been? Surprising even his own countrymen, beset by problems of Shia-Sunni strife and resurgent Talibanisation in the North-West Frontier Province, Gen Musharraf proclaimed that he was off on a trip to Saudi Arabia and select Muslim countries (while pointedly excluding Iran and Syria) to resolve the Palestinian issue and bring peace to Iraq. His efforts were followed by the emergence of a new grouping of Sunni Muslim States comprising Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia. The Foreign Ministers of these countries met in Islamabad just before Mr Cheney's unexpected visit, in which he was accompanied by the CIA's counter-terrorism head, Stephen Kappes. The seven Foreign Ministers are reported to have discussed developments in Iraq and the Palestinian issue, with Turkey's Foreign Minister going to great lengths to aver that the gathering was not directed against Iran. Voicing scepticism, the Iranians have referred to this initiative as an attempt at "marginalisation of Iran and Syria." Mr Cheney's visit was followed by a visit to Pakistan by the British Foreign Secretary, Ms Margaret Beckett.

Just preceding these developments, the Pakistan based Sunni terrorist group "Jundullah" attacked the Iranian city of Zahedan close to the Iran-Balochistan border, killing 13 members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. On February 27, four policemen were killed in the Iranian Province of Sistan-Balochistan by terrorists who fled back to Pakistan. Pakistan's Ambassador was duly summoned to Iran's Foreign Office and on March 2 the Iranian leader, Hojatoleslam Ahmed Khatami, said: "Though Pakistan is our neighbour, little by little it is losing its neighbourly manners. Pakistan has become a haven of terrorists who kill people in Zahedan."

Earlier, the semi-official Tehran Times accused Pakistan of providing "logistical and political support" to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Teheran is now constructing a 700-km, ten-feet-high wall on its border with Pakistan. Interestingly, all these developments followed some American think-tanks showing an unusual interest in ethnic faultlines in Iran, by bringing together Baluch, Kurdish, Azeri and Turkmen minorities in Iran on a common anti-clerical platform. In these circumstances, Gen Musharraf is proving that he is a useful ally of the US in the Islamic world, as the leader of an Islamic country guided by "enlightened moderation".

Beware India

While some would urge that India should now play a more active role in emerging power alignments in the Gulf, we would be well advised to remember the adage that only fools rush in where angels fear to tread. We have developed and should maintain good relations with all the major players in the oil rich Persian Gulf, while counselling restraint and warning against any precipitate military action. Unlike Gen Musharraf, we are not faced with the dilemma of supporting jihad in Afghanistan on the one hand, while pleading for American military and financial assistance on the other.

It is evident that despite the recent visit of the Iranian President, Mr Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, to Saudi Arabia, Arab-Persian suspicions and rivalries remain deep rooted. We get roughly 70 per cent of our oil supplies from Saudi Arabia and its Arab neighbours. Nearly four million Indians reside in these Arab Gulf States and remit back nearly $20 billion annually. While our economic relations with Iran are at a more modest level, the country remains an important partner providing us access to Afghanistan, the landlocked states of Central Asia and to the Caspian borders of Russia. Shia-Sunni sectarian tensions in Iraq could spread and destabilise other Arab Gulf States. Iranian cooperation is important to ensure this does not happen. Our effort should be to cooperate with others and promote stability, while avoiding involvement in regional rivalries.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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