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Wheat crop unaffected by `rogue system'

Vinson Kurian
Harish Damodaran

Thiruvananthapuram/New Delhi March 12 The threat of significant damage to the country's standing wheat crop by a `rogue' back-to-back western disturbance seems to be receding.

The system has already passed the main Punjab-Haryana wheat belt and entered western Uttar Pradesh, without causing much destruction as was initially feared.

According to Dr B. Mishra, who heads the Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Research, the wheat crop was in excellent condition till the afternoon of March 10. With cool temperatures conducive for grain-filling and no reports of major pests or diseases anywhere, there was every reason to expect a record 75 million tonne-plus harvest this time.

Heavy rains

Then came a heavy downpour, induced by a western disturbance that struck Northwest India first on March 9. The system had barely progressed to the plains when, on March 11, yet another system caught up from behind. Normally, there is a breathing space of three to four days between successive rain-driving disturbances.

But in this case, the second back-to-back system was not only bigger, but featured an induced `low' that added to its firepower. The heavy clouds spun up by the steaming front-ends of this `rogue' system have, since late-last week, been pouring their contents in snow over the hills and winding down to wallop the vast plains in Punjab, Haryana and East Rajasthan with heavy rains.

Thankfully though, nowhere along its path has the system caused significant incidence of hail or heavy winds, as was feared by forecasters and anxious rabi crop watchers.

Hailstorms

"We have had some hailstorms in the Yamunanagar area of Haryana, besides lodging in a few parts of Punjab and northern Rajasthan. But these are very isolated occurrences and will not change the picture. Moreover, the current rainfall activity has not effected Central India or the Peninsular zone, where the crop is doing perfectly fine," Dr Mishra added.

Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology said the hail threat, having more or less bypassed North-West India, would now be confined to eastern UP and Bihar.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts also saw the rains from the current disturbance holding out till the weekend, with thundershower activity peaking over eastern UP and Bihar around March 16. Meanwhile, another western disturbance is learnt to be slowly making its way towards Northwest India, even as Dr Ramesh felt it was too early to assess its strength. The presence of a semi-permanent trough over South Pakistan and adjoining western Rajasthan could logically end in rain pulses into India.

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