The Hindu Business Line : The uncertain equation in UP

With the country's largest State readying for an extended election, political parties are in a tizzy to arrive at a winning combination, especially as the people no longer give a clear mandate. As of now, the Bahujan Samaj Party and its leader, Ms Mayawati, seem capable of tilting the balance, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT.

Ms Sonia Gandhi

Amitabh Bachchan might shout hoarse from rooftops that he wants to be reborn yet again in Uttar Pradesh or hold forth on a TV commercial about the low crime rate in the State, saying: "UP mei dum hai, jurm yaha kum hei" (UP is high on strength, but low on crime). When this ad went on air a few months ago, well before the Supreme Court judgement that strengthened the resolve of the Congress(I) to dismiss the Mulayam Singh Government, the Bollywood icon was virtually kick-starting the Samajwadi Party's campaign for the UP Assembly elections.

But no amount of celluloid talent can hide the reality of UP continuing to be a prominent member of the BIMARU club. Of course it is no coincidence that the acronym for the four backward States — Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh — which constitute the Hindi heartland also means `sick'.

As the seven-phase election to India's largest State with a 403-member Assembly kicks off, with nominations invited for the first phase when elections will be held for 62 constituencies, including Chief Minister Mulayam Singh's home town Etawah, the key to the Lucknow Gaddi rests with the Bahujan Samaj Party chief, Ms Mayawati. The SP chief may have wrested power from her, and managed to coax away legislators from the BSP not once but twice, yet her party with its "social justice" card and a massive grassroots reach is being eyed both by the Congress(I) and the BJP.

Mayawati's importance

Ms Mayawati

Ms Mayawati may have made the BJP eat humble pie more than once, most remarkably in the 1990s when she refused to hand over the "revolving chief ministership" to the BJP, but the saffron party realises that she has the key to the gate that would offer power in UP, either through the coalition course or yet another shot at the revolving chief ministership idea. This concept has worked quite well for the Congress(I) and the People's Democratic Party in Jammu and Kashmir.

During troubled times such as these, when the electorate refuses to vote decisively for one major party or the other, opting instead to look at third, fourth or fifth options, a strategic alliance is the only answer to winning an election. Enthused by its sterling performance in Punjab — where it hurt the Congress(I) in urban constituencies — and wresting power from it in Uttarkhand, the BJP will leave no stone unturned to take a shy at power in UP. The first step in this direction was taken when BJP leader Mr M. A. Naqvi called upon Ms Mayawati in January in what was described as a "courtesy call."

But at least the BJP is in the race, even if only after the SP and the BSP. Unfortunately, the Congress cannot claim even this much. What better way to describe the depths to which the party has sunk in a State which gave the country the most number of prime ministers than to take note of the political lightweight Raj Babbar meeting Rahul Gandhi to discuss the possibility of forming a "Fourth Front" between his little known Jan Morcha and India's oldest party?

Fourth Front

Just as the name `Fourth Front' implies, the Congress(I) is in the fourth position in the State and the only hope it has of making a decent showing in the month-long election is to forge an alliance with the BSP.

Those in the Congress opposed to such an alliance know only too well that UP's tough-talking Bahenji will strike a hard bargain, push for being the senior partner and give its ally as few seats as possible. But placed as it is, the Congress(I) cannot fuss too much about such niceties. With players such as Jan Morcha and whosoever else the former Prime Minister, Mr V. P. Singh, succeeds in bringing on board the Fourth Front, it has little chance of making a dent in the vote banks of either the SP or the BJP.

But the irony is that Ms Sonia Gandhi and her advisers did their best to wreck relations with Mr Mulayam Singh and virtually forced him to withdraw support to the UPA Government on the premise that if the Congress joined hands with the SP, it would become the minor player and lose whatever little hold it has at the grassroots. In such circumstances politicians love to quote the age-old adage: Ghoda ghas se dosti karega tau khayega kya? (If the horse strikes friendship with grass, what will it eat?)

Well, going with Ms Mayawati will mean the same fate for the Congress. But the question is that going without her and with political lightweights like Raj Babbar will further dilute its presence in UP. And that is not going to look too good for the Congress(I) first family — Sonia and son Rahul Gandhi, who preside over the constituencies of Rai Bareilly and Amethi.

At the moment Ms Mayawati is singing the mantra of going alone, and on Tuesday even announced the names of BSP candidates for all the 403 seats. Explaining the decision not to contest, Ms Mayawati said she wanted to concentrate on getting the party to win and once that was done, a seat could be got vacated for her. A surprising feature of the BSP list is the 139 upper-caste candidates, including 86 Brahmins.

But Bahenji can be extremely nimble footed and all this can change if she gets a firm offer from the party that can lead her to the seat of power in Lucknow. But she has already upped the ante by announcing all the 403 candidates. Without help from either the BJP or the Congress, pre- or post-poll, she has little chance of once more becoming UP Chief Minister. As for Mr Mulayam Singh, he is a worried man too as he cannot strike a deal with the Congress(I), the BJP or the BSP, as all the three are sworn enemies.

After watching the outcome of the elections in Punjab, where the electorate chose to reject the Congress(I)'s Amrinder Singh against whom the opposition had run a successful campaign of corruption, Mr Mulayam Singh has filed an application in the Supreme Court asking it to keep in abeyance the CBI probe against him and his family.

Mr Mulayam Singh

This had been ordered by the apex court following a petition filed by a Congressman seeking investigation into the alleged massive wealth amassed by the UP Chief Minister and his family.

But now Mr Mulayam Singh says that he has no faith in the CBI, which he has charged with being manipulated by Ms Sonia Gandhi, and has instead sought probe by a retired High Court judge. Addressing the media in the Capital he also charged the Congress High Command with "conspiring" to finish his political career and put him behind bars under the guise of the disproportionate wealth inquiry.

Challenge before EC

In a State known for its crime rate, Mr Amitabh Bachchan's protestations notwithstanding, the challenge before the Election Commission is to conduct a free and fair poll. The Chief Election Commissioner has of course placed touching faith in the media and entrusted them with the task of acting as the "eyes" of the EC. But the media can do only so much and re-polls too can be ordered in only some of the booths where the media are able to detect massive rigging.

But then if the EC could conduct a free and fair poll in Bihar, which saw the end of Lalu-raj, in comparison repeating the exercise in UP cannot be that difficult. For more reasons than one, this will be looked upon as a semi-final before the general elections in 2009. Of course the Gujarat Assembly goes to the polls later this year. But by all accounts Mr Narendra Modi has entrenched himself so firmly in the Chief Minister's seat, winning from his admirers the title of a "model CM", that the results seem to be a bygone conclusion. For the electorate of Gujarat if a communally polarised State, and the far-reaching implications this can trigger in the future, raises no problems, so be it.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in