The Hindu Business Line : Wheat: Sowing trouble

Mandarins in New Delhi seem never willing to learn. Food-price-related inflation is going through the roof. The poor are groaning, never mind if more Indians have entered the Forbes list of billionaires.

Last week, the Empowered Group of Ministers (E-GoM) decided that the quantum of bonus to be given to wheat farmers as an incentive to sell would be decided on March 13. The date has come and gone with the E-GoM deciding to refer the matter to the Cabinet. The powers that be, would "like to wait".

Last year, the Government had paid a bonus of Rs 50 over the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs 650 a quintal. But the decision came too late in the day, on April 21, by when private trade had cornered almost all the saleable wheat. Against the target of procuring 16 million tonnes, the Government ended up buying just about half (9.3 million tonnes) and the country imported 5.6 million tonnes at more than Rs 1,200 a quintal to hold the price line and replenish the buffer-stock. It seems the Government is, advertently or inadvertently, preparing for an encore on the wheat question. Last year, the country harvested slightly more than 72 million tonnes. The unseasonal rains and haul of early March in the wheat belt, has already affected nearly 15,000 hectares of wheat crop and the country would be lucky if it can harvest 70 million tonnes. So, where would it go for the extra wheat if the mandarins lose precious time mulling the bonus issue and end up, once again, draining the nation's kitty to enrich foreign wheat exporters?

Prices are now ruling at Rs 980-990 for delivery at North Indian mills. At the most, it could decline by another Rs 20 and, hence, farmers may not be forthcoming to sell their harvest to the government's procurement agencies at Rs 750 a quintal. The mill delivery price translates to a rate of Rs 830-840 a quintal at the mandis. Already some farmers willing to sell at the announced MSP have been dissuaded by a section of the growers owing allegiance to the powerful Bharat Kisan Union (BKU), led by its energetic leader Mr Mahendra Singh Tikait, spread in the wheat belt of Punjab, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh, and the chances are that the farmers will not sell to the Government.

The unfolding wheat scenario is a cause for great concern. On the one hand, it seems almost certain that India is to remain a "ship-to-mouth" nation. Yields of major staples such as rice and wheat have plateaued and the agricultural fraternity has no solution; it is yet to come out with superior performing crop ideotypes that will breach current yield barriers. The country's plant breeders "researching" in major staples must own up responsibility.

While China is racing ahead with the hybrid rice, we still are talking about the IR types of the 1960s or their later variants. When wheat prices hit the ceiling, the poor will suffer. The mandarins can open up the escape hatch of import to hold the price line. Why do not the Agriculture Minister, Mr Sharad Pawar, his colleagues, and the various agricultural messiahs think of paying an attractive price to the wheat farmers, who would then be encouraged to go in for growing the cereal on a large scale and be willing to sell their produce to New Delhi, instead of enriching foreign shippers?

(The author is a senior fellow of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.)