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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram March 18 High winds, hail and widespread precipitation have been predicted for Northwest India over a period of the four days from Monday in what meteorologists consider to be the last of the late winter/early spring storms of 2007.

A high-pressure system (ridge, with dry sinking air) would expectedly replace the semi-permanent trough that has been sitting over North Pakistan-West Rajasthan, helping remove the `border trigger' for violent weather events in India.

RECORD RAINFALL

The season (March 1-14) has already seen some record rainfall in the entire northwest, with Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi leading the pack (+554 per cent). Other significant figures (in percentage figures): West Uttar Pradesh (+377); Bihar (+352): West Rajasthan (+332); Eastern Uttar Pradesh (+285); and Punjab (+270).

Some meteorologists believe that most of these big rain events, accompanied at times by hail, were untimely and have caused some damage to the standing rabi wheat crop. The latest western disturbance being reported is also feared to kick up high winds, apart from rain and isolated hail across the plains.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said that scattered to fairly widespread precipitation is expected over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Isolated thundershowers are expected over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and North Rajasthan. The wild weather will later propagate to Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and parts of north Madhya Pradesh.

GOOD MONSOON?

Meanwhile, the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction and Society at Columbia University has come out with forecasts indicating `slightly enhanced possibility (38 per cent) for above normal monsoon' for India during June-September this year.

This is thought to result from what the IRI perceives is a developing La Nina event (the cold counterpart to an El Nino), which has a 50 per cent of chances of materialising fully. La Nina is associated with the warming of the western Pacific, and a concomitant rise in storm activity.

This is expected to help drive up the Indian monsoon season, since western Pacific storms are also known to propagate to the adjoining big water bodies of South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal to further west. In this manner, La Nina also translates into particularly heavier than normal rainfall in North India.

But IRI also warned that what looks like a busy monsoon would be preceded by a harsher summer in which mercury is seen hovering above the normal over most parts of the landmass, especially South Peninsular India (April through September).

North India would see temperatures soaring during April-May-June, while for the Northeast, this would happen during July-August-September.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

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Alert for high winds, hail in Northwest India

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