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Vinson Kurian

Will be preceded by a harsher summer, warns IRI

Thiruvananthapuram March 26 The favourable outlook for the 2007 southwest monsoon has received a further boost with projections by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) corroborating the same in its latest seasonal forecast.

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University had earlier sought to build a case for a successful monsoon, based on an emerging La Nina event in (the colder counterpart of an El Nino) in the equatorial Pacific.

WARMIMG OF PACIFIC

La Nina is associated with warming of the West Pacific and concomitant rise in storm activity. It also translates into particularly heavier than normal rainfall in North India, with Bay of Bengal systems rolling inland and travelling with a typical north-northwest orientation.

The IRI forecast had indicated a `slightly enhanced possibility (38 per cent) for above normal monsoon' during the June-September season.

The ECMWF projections seem to point to even higher realisation in terms of precipitation, especially along the southwest coast of the country.

Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Konkan, parts of western Maharashtra and south Gujarat would need to contend with excess precipitation along and off the coast, as could be gleaned from ECMWF charts.

Excess rains

Bountiful rains have also been indicated for East Asia, around the South China Sea/West Pacific.

This is only to be expected since the warming anomaly would have shifted to the Central and West Pacific leading to increased convection, storm activity and precipitation. South China Sea systems have often triggered activity in the adjoining Bay of Bengal, with cascading effect on prevailing monsoon.

The IRI assessed that the developing La Nina event has a 50 per cent of chances of materialising fully. But it warned that the 2007 monsoon would be preceded by a harsher summer in which mercury is seen hovering above the normal over most parts of the landmass, especially South Peninsular India.

TROUGH RETURNING?

Meanwhile, latest projections are that Northwest India would probably have to contend with another westerly trough sooner than later, in contrast to expectations that a high-pressure system (anti-cyclone) would build and generate prolonged fair weather conditions.

Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology said that a ridge-like system has developed along the border, though not evolving into an anti-cyclone that would unseat the prevailing semi-permanent trough hanging over West Rajasthan and adjoining North Pakistan.

So long as this does not happen, the border and adjoining Northwest are prone to raids by westerly systems, though not of the size of those which dumped rain and snow in the region during February-March.

All-India rainfall figures from March 1 to 21 were 54 per cent above normal.

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Models suggest `good' monsoon from La Nina

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