The Hindu Business Line : It is back to the brink in Sri Lanka

The LTTE bombing a Sri Lankan air force base near Colombo clearly shows that the war is escalating, and all but stops the peace process in its track. The island-nation may end up paying a heavy economic price.

The air raid by the LTTE, the first of its kind, on a Sri Lankan air force base outside Colombo and close to the Katunayake International Airport, could mark the opening of yet another bloody chapter in the so far futile search for peace and resolution of the ethnic conflict in the island nation.

In the daring attack, which announced to the world the formation of yet another wing of the Tamil Tigers — the Air Tigers — a light aircraft dropped three bombs on the main base of the Sri Lankan Air Force on Monday morning, killing three persons and wounding 16. That an aircraft could come in all the way from the jungles of Vanni to target the air force base deep in the heart of the Sinhalese majority South has set alarm bells ringing among the civilians in Colombo.

Even as the military conflict has been raging in the North and the East following the breakdown of the pace process and the withdrawal of the Norwegian negotiators, the LTTE followed up the air attack by driving, on Tuesday morning, an explosive-laden tractor into a military camp in eastern Sri Lanka. When challenged by the guards the tractor driver triggered a blast at the entrance, killing at least two people, including himself.

An escalation

The LTTE's air capability, coming as it does after the Tigers have perfected the deadly concept of suicide bombing and a Naval unit, the `Sea Tigers', complete with small gunboats, is clear signal that it is ready to escalate the military engagement with the Mahinda Rajapaksa government. That the Tigers have been building up air-power has been known. In May 2005, Sri Lanka's chief ceasefire monitor, Mr Hagrup Haukland, while addressing the Foreign Correspondents Association of Sri Lanka, had said that the "air assets" of the LTTE not only threatened domestic security but had also invited concerns from India. He was responding to questions on reports of an LTTE airstrip in northern Sri Lanka.

"Mr Haukland said he had seen the airstrip from a helicopter on March 4, 2004 — a day after the rebellion by the LTTE's former eastern regional commander, V. Muralitharan (Col Karuna)," reported The Hindu on May 28, 2005.

The LTTE, he added, had "denied access" to the Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission to visit the airstrip, "which is a ceasefire violation." To another question on the outcome if the Government were to bomb the airstrip, Mr Haukland said: "Then it is war. If the bombs fall, we pull out," the report quoted Mr Haukland.

Collapse of peace process

While Finland and Denmark announced in July 2006 that they were pulling out their nationals from the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) before the September 1 deadline set by the LTTE for the withdrawal of monitors from European Union member-states, the Norwegian pulled out after some time as the ceasefire agreement was constantly being violated.

So the public display and evidence of the LTTE's air combat capabilities has not come as a surprise to political analysts in Colombo. Mr Jehan Perera, Executive Director of the Colombo-based National Peace Council, said as much when he told Business Line in a telephonic interview on Tuesday that, "It was well known that the LTTE had light aircraft and that it was possible that they would use them against the Sri Lankan state. What was however surprising is that we had anticipated that those light aircraft would be used more in the nature of suicide weapons rather than for successful bombing raids; and that they can come from Killinochchi and get back suggests a degree of technical sophistication that would pose challenges to the Sri Lankan state in the future."

He is not surprised that the LTTE has made this powerful statement at this juncture, because "whenever under military pressure they react with something spectacular." But, he adds, fortunately the material destruction and loss of lives due to this attack have been limited. "But it is a wake up call to the Sri Lankan Government that proceeding along the path of military confrontation is going to be one with a very heavy cost."

Mr Perera thinks till now there has been a growing sense of complacency in the South of Sri Lanka that the cost of military confrontation could be restricted to the North and the East, hurting the LTTE and the Tamil people. But now there is a greater awareness that the South will also have to pay a price.

He also believes that the latest attack by the LTTE is its answer to the Sri Lankan Government opening up a front in the North. "We know the North is much more important to the LTTE than the East and for the North the LTTE will fight tooth and nail. This attack could be a way of taking the pressure off the North or warn the Government what the consequences of continuing a northern offensive would be: A no-holds barred war."

Escalation in war

Giving his take on the LTTE's air bombing, Prof Jayadeva Uyangoda, Head of the Department of Political Science, Colombo University, says that though not much information is as yet available on what exactly happened — "the government has not revealed any details" — the bombing clearly showed that "the war is escalating. By this attack, essentially the Tigers are making the point that they can make certain shifts in the war. To me, this is another development in this protracted war."

Expressing his disappointment at the manner in which the Rajapaksa administration is handling the ethnic conflict issue, Dr Uyangoda adds: "It is becoming increasingly clear that both the sides do not want peace... neither the Tigers not the Sri Lankan government. So you have two military machines fighting it out; peace is not on the agenda at all. War is on their agenda."

On the serious breach in security signalled by an LTTE aircraft being able to successfully hit a target in the South and return to its base unchallenged, Mr Perera says, "Yes indeed, it is a serious lapse in security." Neither is he surprised that the Rajapaksa Government has sought to play down the whole incident. "Of course the Government would wish to downplay it for political reasons for it certainly would not want the general population to lose faith in its capacity to deal with the LTTE. It would also want to downplay it fearing the negative economic impact on foreign investments, insurance rates, tourism."

Economic impact

That this new development in Sri Lanka will affect its tourism industry became evident on Monday itself when Cathay Pacific cancelled all its flights from Hong Kong to Colombo and a few Indian aircraft had to return as the Colombo international airport was closed for some time after the LTTE bombing.

Britain and New Zealand, which already have strong travel advisories in place against their nationals travelling to the North and East of Sri Lanka, have asked their nationals to be very careful while in the country.

But any serious economic implication can be avoided, feels Mr Perera, if "there is some swift damage control by the Sri lankan Government assuring the rest of the world that such things will not happen again." This it can do either by militarily destroying LTTE airplanes or by resuming the process of dialogue with the LTTE.

He does not think there is any immediate danger of the Tigers targeting India in the short term. "Their short-term target is clearly Colombo, but we have the past precedent of the LTTE power reaching India and extracting a heavy price in the form of the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. So although today the LTTE's target is not India, if LTTE does gain the capacity to grow their military to punish those who don't behave in accordance with its wishes, then you can never say what the future might hold, even in terms of India."

But he is optimist enough to believe that this incident has really jeopardised the possibility of resumption of the peace process. "I think this incident opens the eyes of those in Sri Lanka who were blindly proceeding on the path of military confrontation. It has opened their eyes to the reality of what war will entail. And there will possibly be rethinking of the desirability and feasibility of a military solution to this conflict."

While the bloody conflict between the Government and the LTTE takes Sri Lanka to the brink, what will haunt people around the world for at least some time will be the image of a beaming LTTE chief V. Prabhakaran, surrounded by grinning members of the LTTE air wing in an undated picture released by the rebel outfit.

The picture, frontpaged by all newspapers, presents the face of glee and triumph that those who have amassed military muscle automatically develop. That the prospect of blood and bombings, death and destruction can trigger such happiness and triumph is a disturbing thought indeed, and only mirrors the dangerous times we live in.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in