The Hindu Business Line : Silver performance seen down

Mumbai April 1 Study of seasonal trends shows interesting patterns. April marks the beginning of the second quarter of the calendar year, which is usually registers strong growth in commodity consumption. Historically, commodity performance shows a divergent trend in April.

Silver and aluminium usually run into unfavourable returns this month, while for natural gas and WTI crude, historical returns are positive. In terms of median monthly returns, natural gas is rated the best and silver the worst by Barclays Capital. April would be a mixed month for precious metals.

Natural gas has attractive odds of a rally (63 per cent), although in the past two years, the market had negative returns. Maximum returns are placed at 17 per cent and minimum return -13 per cent (-13 per cent).

Odds of an advance of gold (spot) this month are 56 per cent, with expected maximum return of 13 per cent and minimum of -9 per cent (- 9 per cent). For copper, the odds of advance are 50 per cent with maximum and minimum return respectively at 30 per cent and -15per cent. Odds of silver advance are at 38 per cent and of aluminium 32 per cent.