The Hindu Business Line : Can India weather climate change?

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Can India weather climate change?

Sharad Joshi

Even as the effects of global warming are beginning to be felt, is the establishment ready to deal with its impact? SHARAD JOSHI does not think so, and examines the possible fallout on agriculture and related sectors.

GLACIAL WARMING may ensure enough irrigation water for some years, but after that is the grim prospect of a long and terrible drought. — Ritu Raj Konwar

It appears that the phenomenon of global warming is upon India. As on April 11, the temperature in Delhi had risen to 38.3°C from 30°C in 2005 and 36°C in 2006. If this trend continues, the peak temperature in Delhi this summer may touch 50°C. It was earlier forecast that the highest temperature this summer in Kanpur would be around 52°C.

Global warming is the observed increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation. The models referenced by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have predicted that global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1°C to 6.4°C between 1990 and 2100. The increase of 8.3°C in three years is more ominous than the worst predictions of the IPCC on rising temperatures.

The increases in global temperatures are expected to cause rising sea-levels and changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation as also a higher frequency of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, storms, hurricanes and tornados.

Alongside these forecasters of doom, are "cooler-headed coalitions" that take a more sober view of the climate. There are some who think that global warming may not continue indefinitely. The phenomenon we are experiencing is merely a phase of "climate change" that is unlikely to follow a linear trend indefinitely.

Changing weather

However, the unprecedented rains in Mumbai, Gujarat and Rajasthan and the incessantly rising temperatures clearly show that something new is happening. It has been projected that the maximum temperatures will soar; the frequency of hot days and heat waves would increase and cold days and cold waves would diminish.

There will be more intense precipitation events over many areas, increased summer drying over mid-continental areas and greater frequency of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and tornados. Whether the "global warming" school of thought or the "cooler heads" are right, only time can tell, but it remains that all living things will be called upon to brave an epoch of unprecedented suffering and adjustment.

Plant life is more susceptible to extremes of climate than most non-botanical species. It is probable that some of the more vulnerable species of animals, insects and reptiles will simply perish. Human beings can adjust better because of the higher degrees of freedom they enjoy and can even manage to save themselves as also the domestic animals.

But what will be the effect of rising temperatures on agriculture?

The farmers near the tropics would find it difficult to grow crops in temperatures above 50°C. and the production of foodgrains will have to shift to the more temperate regions. Not that these areas will not have their own set of climatic problems; they will face more frequent storms, hurricanes and tornados. The shift in crop patterns may also result in mass migration and, probably, armed conflagrations.

What will be the impact on India's farm sector? The cultivation in the arid, rain-fed and drought-prone areas barely permits minimal survival, even today. With foodgrain crops shifting to the more temperate regions, India might, once again, have to depend for its food on shipments from abroad. The only ray of hope would be the rapid technological progress in the identification and isolation of drought-resistant genes and their introduction into selected varieties of seeds. That, however, appears bleak at this point.

The Supreme Court, as it is, has ordered a stay on the approval of new trials and new GMO (genetically-modified) varieties. As a consequence, only one multinational and one Indian company that had managed to get all the approvals for anti-bollworm varieties, are sitting pretty.

On the other hand, some of the more recent Indian innovators who have made breakthroughs in drought- and salinity-resistant genes have been blocked.

Long dry spells

Warming of the glaciers might ensure supply of enough irrigation water for some years, but after that is the grim prospect of a terrible drought. The entire agricultural cultivation in India will have to gradually start shifting northwards.

The more important question is: Are the government and the farmers ready for this kind of a catastrophe?

The Indian Council of Agricultural research (ICAR) has done some work on:

The effect of "The Heat wave of March 2004;"

Cold wave of 2002-2003: Impact on agriculture;

Impact of the excessive rains on yield, market availability and prices of onion; and

A generic study on the drought management strategies.

These studies are comprehensive and should provide an insight into the impact of extreme climates as a global and sustained phenomenon. However, the specific events of extreme climates are treated as short-duration and region-specific. The climate change we are likely to encounter in the near future requires a study with a much broader perspective that will presume that there will be no return to the climatic epoch we are used to.

First, plants that provide food, fibre and fuel might perish as a species altogether due to their inability to withstand the extremes of heat or rainfall. The Indian Council for Agricultural Research can probably start research work on the threatened varieties.There are plants that cannot withstand extremes of heat and cold. Similarly, there are plants that can withstand a certain level of drought and/or a certain level of submergence. All these species will be exposed to the risk of extinction if the new epoch of climate change lasts for a dozen or so years. The Indian Council for Agricultural Research should start work on replacing such fragile varieties with those that have greater tolerance to extremes of temperature and precipitation.

Impact of fishery, livestock

The Department of Animal Husbandry and Fisheries is even less prepared for the contingency. The breeding cycles of fish might undergo a drastic change. Most important, the whole experiment of promoting crossbreed cows might simply fail. Most varieties of Jersey and Holstein Friesen crossbreed cows have to be provided with fans and coolers, even in the relatively moderate summers. Even a short exposure to excessive heat affects their productivity.

It would probably be better to promote sturdier milch animals, such as buffalo and sheep. Even at this late stage, it would be worthwhile developing varieties of sheep that can better withstand the vicissitudes of climate change.

The paradox

The Food Processing Ministry does not seem aware of the difficult tasks ahead. Very high temperatures will make it difficult, if not impossible, to store onion and potatoes. Preservation of vegetables and fruits would also become difficult. It would not be an exaggeration to say that the entire food processing industry would be in doldrums if the present cold storage equipment fails under the new climatic conditions. The paradox is: the more the refrigeration, you have, the more the greenhouse gases and the greater the global warming. Does the Ministry realise the Catch 22 situation it is caught in?

Agricultural extension has failed and now, as admitted by the Finance Minister, is in a state of collapse. Can the extension institutions carry the technology and management of global-warming to the poor farmers in inaccessible and remote parched lands?

Not many in the country had even heard the word tsunami till it struck. The situation might be better vis-à-vis "global warming" and "climate change"; but that is about all. Else, India is as unprepared to meet the challenge of global warming, which is on its way, as it was the hour before the tsunami struck.

(The author is founder, Shetkari Sanghatana and Member of Parliament Rajya Sabha. He can be reached at sharad.mah@nic.in)

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