The Hindu Business Line : Met dept sees slightly below average monsoon

Thiruvananthapuram April 19 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a `near normal' (or slightly below average) monsoon for the country during the June to September season this year.

The monsoon this year is likely to be 95 per cent of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent, according to the forecast released in New Delhi on Thursday.

This is based upon the newly adopted statistical forecast system. IMD will update the above forecast in June as a part of the second stage forecasts.

Separate forecasts for the July rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India also will be issued.

OUTLOOK CONTRASTS

The less than enthusiastic IMD forecast contrasts with the outlook given out concurrently by leading international weather models suggesting normal or even above-normal rainfall during the crucial four-month season.

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office, and the Japanese Meteorological Agency had earlier come out with near-identical forecasts suggesting `good' monsoon.

LA NINA CRUCIAL

Explaining the global weather pattern with likely implications for the monsoon, the IMD said that trends in surface and subsurface ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific indicate that the warm (El Nino) episode has ended and that conditions are becoming favourable for La Nina to develop.

La Nina is the colder counterpart of El Nino, and is seen generally as aiding the prospects of the Indian monsoon. During a La Nina event, warm anomalies return to the West Pacific and triggers convection and storm activity.

RAPID COOLING

By the end of February, sea surface temperatures were near average in the vicinity of the International Date Line, and below average over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Almost all statistical and ocean-atmosphere coupled models indicate additional anomalous cooling over the equatorial Pacific during the next 2-3 months. Some of them indicate a rapid transition to La Nina conditions during next few months.

IMD said the new statistical forecast system has shown better performance compared to the 8- and 10-parameter models during the recent years, including the drought years of 2002 and 2004.

The model errors of the April and June forecast systems however remain as plus or minus 5 per cent and plus or minus 4 per cent respectively.

The methods used in the new forecast system and results have been documented, peer reviewed and published in 2006 in a reputed international research journal, Climate Dynamics.

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