The Hindu Business Line : Early monsoon onset, good July rains likely

Thiruvananthapuram April 20 Increasingly converging projections by various weather models suggest that this year, the southwest monsoon could break in earlier than normal, if forecast conditions are to hold and sustain as they have until now.

The normal date of onset is June 1 along the Kerala coast.

Latest update from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University has maintained its outlook for an above normal rainfall (up to +38 per cent) for the June to September season.

This is in contrast with the "slightly below normal" forecast (95 per cent of long-period average) put out by India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday.

GOOD JULY RAINS

The IRI also said the rainfall pattern would hold particularly strong for July-August-September and August-September-October, which is crucial from the point of view of kharif crop prospects. The forecast revealed enhanced prospects this time for a better organised and evenly distributed rainfall. Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology said an early onset of the season was a likelihood judged concurrently as resulting from thunderstorms forecast to bear down on the peninsula during April-May-June.

Thunderstorms pump up the level of moisture and the latent heat of condensation available in the atmosphere. Warming of the atmosphere from the latent heat of condensation in turn helps further raise its moisture-holding capacity, clearing the way for monsoon flows to establish.

But, for this to happen, enabling conditions should hold and sustain as forecast during the period under reference, Dr Ramesh added.

As per IRI predictions, both May-June-July and July-August-September quarters are likely to see the southwest coast, especially Konkan, Saurashtra and Gujarat, bearing the brunt of strong monsoon flows. North and North-East India could share their spoils in June-July-August. The monsoon current is seen being ably supported by an evolving La Nina event, during when warm anomalies develop in the surface waters of West Pacific. The IRI assessed that as of mid-April the possibility exists for La Nina conditions to develop.

Based on the latest observations and forecasts, there is a 50 per cent probability of La Nina conditions developing by mid-2007.

The pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific is beginning to resemble that of La Nina conditions, with colder than average waters in the far eastern Pacific and slightly warmer than average waters in the western Pacific. Although the cold SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific may have dampened slightly in the recent week, the subsurface still shows cold anomalies that will not disappear so quickly. Dynamical models that incorporate information about sub-surface ocean conditions give a stronger indication of the development of La Nina. Conversely, the probability of El Nino conditions re-emerging during remains at or below 5 per cent.

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