The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon blues

For the country caught in an inflationary spiral, caused primarily by tightening food supplies and rising prices, the India Meteorological Department's forecast of a near-normal South-West monsoon for 2007-08 should come as a balm. But getting carried away, one must hasten to remember that the forecast does not necessarily imply a favourable spatial and temporal distribution of rains — critical for yields and hence total production. As the kharif season accounts for more than 55 per cent of the annual farm output, a satisfactory harvest of rice, coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds and cotton would cool market prices. However, if experience is any guide, little is likely to change on the agricultural front, notwithstanding a normal monsoon.

There is nothing to suggest that the Government is prepared to draw the best out of the four-month phenomenon. Nor is there a perceptible sense of urgency among the States to ensure uninterrupted supply of quality inputs — seeds, fertilisers and agro-chemicals. Indications of an early onset of monsoon — well before the customary June 1 on Kerala coast — make timely supplies of inputs critical. In the event of serious shortfall/excess rains, States must be ready with contingency plans, including additional seed stocks and alternative crop plans. Extension activities should begin in right earnest. Though the meteorological department asserts that El Nino has ended and the emergence of its opposite, La Nina, may be advantageous for rains in India, we must go by the dictum `better safe than sorry' and be prepared to face a sub-optimal monsoon. Australia is reeling under severe drought, while in the US West and Midwest face water shortage. In India, the water-table in some of the key States — Punjab and Haryana — continues to be low, a problem compounded by growing micro-nutrient deficiency caused by grain mono-cropping. Crop diversification proposals have remained on paper.

Traditionally, June to September is the 'lean period' for agricultural commodities because kharif crops are in the making and food inventories decline due to surge in demand during festival season (August-October). This time also coincides with planting and crop progress in the northern hemisphere. The world-over weather plays an important role in determining commodity price direction in these months. It is critical for the Government to track domestic and international developments for early signals of major price movements, and initiate action in the domestic market to augment supplies and rein-in prices. More important, the Agriculture Ministry should make public its action plan to maximise not only kharif grain output but also horticulture, livestock and fisheries production. There is a strong need to insist on some accountability in the functioning of the Agriculture Ministry as normal monsoons of the past several years have not resulted in sustained growth in farm output.

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