The Hindu Business Line : The simmering UP cauldron

As all the electoral combinations are being discussed and analysed, nobody is asking if the long-suffering people of UP will get a decent government.

The Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, did his bit for the Nehru-Gandhi family scion, when he told the people during an election rally in Uttar Pradesh: "Rahul Gandhi is your future. He is sweating it out for you," and sought just one chance for him to change the fortunes of UP.

Rahul has certainly been sweating it out... be it for himself, his family or his party. Even a political novice can spell out the challenge before him now. While in the best of the Congress party's sycophantic traditions, its leaders may be screaming from rooftops about the young Gandhi taking on "a more responsible role" (read `future prime minister'), Amethi's MP will first have to prove his credentials from his karmabhoomi — UP.

And let us not take away from the charisma of a young, well-educated and handsome leader taking on a person like the Samajwadi Party chief and UP Chief Minister, Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav. Of course, the latter is a seasoned politician and, like the Bihar strongman, Mr Lalu Prasad, has his own brand of rustic charm. But pitted against the photogenic and fresh-sounding Rahul Gandhi, he has little chance of winning any non-political popularity contest.

SP Trails

And even in the political arena, exit polls tell us that his party may not do as well as it did last time. According to an NDTV exit poll done for the third phase of the UP election, in which 57 seats went up for grabs, the Samajwadi Party slipped to the third position, the forecast being that it would bag only 10-14 seats in the mainly Muslim constituencies. In the previous election (2002), it won 26 seats.

The bad news for Mr Mulayam Singh is that the other three major parties in the fray — Ms Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress — are expected to do better from this region than they did last time.

The exit poll gives the BJP and its allies 20-24 seats against the 13 won last time, and the BSP 15-19 seats, against its earlier nine. The Congress, despite Mr Rahul Gandhi's sweat, fury, thunder and tall promises, remains at the bottom, or at No. 4 position, though it may improve on its previous tally of four seats by winning up to eight seats.

The NDTV poll analysis says that if the rest of the State reflects a similar sentiment or swing, the BSP is likely to emerge the single largest party with 120-30 seats (it got 98 seats in 2002) in a House of 403, closely followed by the BJP alliance with 110-120 seats and the SP with 105-115 seats.

But by all accounts the Congress seems destined to remain far behind, and might fail to improve dramatically its 25-MLA strength in the outgoing Assembly, though it might double its vote bank.

No Surprise

The exit poll verdict is hardly surprising; an anti-establishment vote has become the feature of all Indian elections and it seems that no party in power — in a State or at the Centre — will be allowed to collect cobwebs under its seat of power. When even governments that have performed reasonably well — be it the BJP-led National Democratic Front regime at the Centre or the AIADMK government of Ms Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu during 2001-06 — have been sent out by an unsatisfied or disenchanted electorate, what hope does the SP Government in UP have of defying this syndrome?

After all, , in the last five years, UP has hardly managed to play `catch-up' with the rest of India, which is clearly on a growth upswing. All the laboured or learned political analyses based on the caste and class systems pale into insignificance in the face of this common denominator in all Indian elections.

The economy may be growing at over 9 per cent, and the privileged classes may be basking in the glory and affluence of this growth, taking on board each year a small minority of the urban English-speaking middle-class that is increasingly wooed by a vibrant job market. But the masses continue to reel under poverty and adversity as they struggle to keep body and soul together. For them, the chance of revenge comes but once in five years and they have somehow almost always managed to take the crown away from one political party and give it to another.

While a State such as Tamil Nadu has only two dominant players, UP gives them at least three choices — the BSP, the BJP and the SP. The Congress will continue to be an "also ran" for a few more elections, unless it can dramatically reverse its culture of paying obeisance only to the No 1 family and work relentlessly to build up a grassroots base in the State, where even one-time staunch Congress supporters have drifted away from the party.

Meanwhile, much of the print and electronic media's time is being expended over Mr Rahul Gandhi's two famous statements — on the demolition of the Babri Masjid and the division of Bangladesh by his grandmother. One fails to understand the fuss. On the one hand, you call him a political novice, member of the babalog brigade and similar ridiculous labels. And, on the other, you expect that every word he utters is measured and brilliant!

For all the flak he has taken, it should be comforting for him to recall that Indira Gandhi was once dubbed a goongi gudiya. And Rajiv Gandhi, as Prime Minister, had sent Delhi's diplomatic corps into a tizzy the first time he had thundered, "Pakistan ko hum nani yaad dila dengey".

Old-timers in the Delhi media fraternity still chuckle over how the Western diplomats had sought from them an "exact translation" of this phrase, which they thought might change the very face of Indo-Pak relations!

Hung House

Returning to UP, the indicators are of a hung Assembly, as in the recent past. Bahenji's return was forecast in these columns and till now it appears that she retains the edge. But the main problem is in the narrow lead she is expected to have. On the other hand, if the BJP alliance manages to get more than 110 seats that have been forecast, its top leadership will be surprised the most. Just as the Congress high command was when it found that its party was on its way to forming the coalition government in New Delhi in 2004. Since the M2 formula is unlikely to work, that leaves the possibility of an alliance between M1 (Mayawati) and the BJP. The real story of this election will begin only when the ridiculously long and laboured phases are over and the results declared.

Firecrackers will be set off in more than one camp and, after that, the fireworks will begin. Even if the BJP alliance emerges the single largest group, it is unlikely that UP will see a BJP chief minister in Lucknow. At least, not immediately. An alliance between the BSP and the BJP is quite likely and the latter will have to swallow many bitter memories of past association with the Bahenji.

Or, will it be an alliance between the BJP and SP? If he performs a little better than the exit polls predict, Mr Mulayam Singh will give his right arm for another term in office — revolving or otherwise.

In the process, he may care little if he has to shed the image of being the Messiah of the Muslims? After all, this vote bank will be immaterial till the next election. Unfortunately, as all these combinations and permutations are being debated, nobody is asking the most relevant question — will the long suffering people of UP get a decent government? Unlikely, is the reply that comes to mind readily.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in