The Hindu Business Line : Third Jammu and Kashmir Round-Table

With Indo-Pak talks moving ahead satisfactorily, India should have no difficulty in proceeding with negotiations on self-governance across the undivided State of Jammu & Kashmir, to ensure that the powers enjoyed by elected bodies on both sides of the LoC are harmonised.

The Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, is already talking publicly about the "future" leadership of the country. His contributions to foreign policy and national security will be largely judged on two major initiatives he has undertaken — the nuclear deal with the US and his efforts to seek peace and reconciliation on the vexed issue of Jammu and Kashmir.

Reconciling the assurances he gave in Parliament on the autonomy of our strategic nuclear programme and on the guarantees of fuel supplies within the provisions of the US Hyde Act, is becoming a seemingly intractable issue. But he does appear to have set the stage for a framework of bilateral negotiations with Pakistan on the issue of J&K.

For decades, there appeared to be no basis to reconcile the views of India and Pakistan on the J&K issue. However, as Pakistan started realising that its calls for so called, "self-determination," enjoyed virtually no support in the US, the European Union, Russia and even China, the Pakistan President, Gen Pervez Musharraf, put forward proposals for demilitarisation, self-governance and joint management. Dr Manmohan Singh asserted that while borders could not be redrawn, they could be made "irrelevant".

Central to Gen Musharraf's thinking is the early acceptance of his proposal for "demilitarisation". He has asked Washington to persuade India to commence "demilitarisation" by withdrawals from three key urban hubs — Kupwara, Baramulla and Srinagar. There has also been a subtle shift in the Pakistani policy of putting all its eggs in the Hurriyat basket. Mainstream political parties such as the PDP and the National Conference are being assiduously cultivated by Gen Musharraf to get them to join the Hurriyat in demanding "demilitarisation". Hence, the shrill demands in the Kashmir Valley for "demilitarisation".

Gen Musharraf has realised that with India's security forces effectively ending all hopes of militants taking over populated areas, "demilitarisation" is the only way for Pakistani-backed militants to take control of urban centres and proclaim that they are "liberated zones" as India's security forces would be averse to undertaking operations in urban hubs, which may involve heavy civilian casualties.

Consultative Format

While New Delhi has remained silent on what has transpired in back channel and Foreign Secretary level meetings on J&K, both Gen Musharraf and Mr Khurshid Kasuri have repeatedly stressed that so much progress ha been made in these exchanges that one could well find the issue of J&K resolved by this September.

During the Third J&K roundtable on April 24, Dr Manmohan Singh said these assertions "do not give a correct picture". From what one can discern about what transpired in the exchanges with Pakistan in the recent past, India has made it clear that "self-governance" has to be equally applicable on both sides of the LoC.

It has also been stressed that rather than Joint Management, India is not averse to joint consultative and coordinating mechanisms to discuss issues of common concern like trade, tourism, education, health, environment and water resources. The demand for demilitarisation has been responded to by noting that the level and nature of deployment of security forces in Jammu and Kashmir will be directly related to the existence of the infrastructure for terrorism in PoK and in Pakistan itself.

In the meantime, the process of making borders "irrelevant" has commenced, with measures to promote trade and travel across the LoC.

The talks with Pakistan on Jammu and Kashmir have been proceeding satisfactorily on the basis that "borders cannot be redrawn". The recent Resolution of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament draws a distinction between the total lack of autonomy and self-governance in PoK and the Northern Areas, in contrast to the extensive powers enjoyed by the Government and Legislature in J&K. India should, therefore, have no difficulty in proceeding with negotiations on self-governance across the entire undivided State of J&K, to ensure that the powers enjoyed by elected bodies on both sides of the LoC, from village to regional level, are harmonised and identical. Despite this, misgivings do unfortunately persist that the Government has embarked on a "sell-out" on Jammu and Kashmir.

Misgivings Persist

The reasons for these misgivings are obvious. It is no secret that the Manmohan Singh Government, duly encouraged by friends in Washington, was prepared for a precipitous withdrawal of forces from Siachen, before it was stopped in its tracks by the views of the security establishment and concerned public opinion.

The Government's inexplicable decision to suddenly establish a "Joint Terror Mechanism," which has turned out to be a diplomatic farce and the Prime Minister's astonishing statement in Havana that Pakistan, like India, is a "victim of terrorism," raised serious public doubts about the Government's ability to deal with issues of national security. More serious efforts by the Government are imperative, to take political parties, Parliament and public opinion into confidence on its dialogue on J&K with Pakistan.

Dr Manmohan Singh complemented his diplomatic efforts with a consultative process with a broad cross-section of political opinion in J&K through a series of roundtable discussions with the Third Roundtable held in New Delhi on April 24. But the manner in which these roundtable discussions were convened and held raised serious misgivings. The authority and stature of the Prime Minister have been seriously eroded by the manner in which a ragtag bunch of separatists from the Hurriyat Conference publicly spurned invitations from the Prime Minister to participate in the roundtables.

What was the need to virtually go on bended knees to invite these worthies who would have done little more than mouthed the views of their masters in Islamabad had they participated? Not a single working group thought it fit to say that there could be no sustained economic or social development in J&K, and particularly in the Kashmir Valley, unless political parties and civil society organisations committed themselves to stop acting as apologists for terrorists trained across the LoC and joined hands to isolate and seek out terrorists.

Meaningful Autonomy

One working group proposed revocation of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act and maintenance of law and order "through normal laws". This group appeared to have scant understanding of the fact that terrorists armed, motivated and trained across the LoC are not mere pickpockets, or thieves who can be dealt with through "normal laws".

Mercifully, the Working Group on Centre-State relations is yet to submit its recommendations. One hopes this group will show a greater measure of realism and take into account larger considerations of national unity, while proceeding with its assigned task. It will take years, if not decades, for Pakistan to grant any meaningful autonomy on its side of the LoC.

The entire question of the extent of autonomy that the erstwhile princely State of Jammu and Kashmir will enjoy (in equal measure on both sides of the Line of Control) will ultimately depend on the levels of autonomy that both India and Pakistan will be comfortable with, consistent with larger considerations of their unity and territorial integrity.

If Pakistan has to proceed cautiously on this issue, because of concerns of its impact on the separatist politics of Sind and Baluchistan, India has to assess how issues of autonomy conceded in J&K will affect the separatist demands in the North-East and elsewhere.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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