The Hindu Business Line : Bay arm of monsoon nearing home stretch

Thiruvananthapuram May 8 Conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD).

This is being seen as the firmest indication yet that the onset over the mainland could take place earlier than normal. South Andaman Sea normally receives monsoon after May 15, but the strong build-up of a helpful circulation at least a week ahead on Tuesday suggests it could happen any time from now.

According to meteorological sources, the cloudiness in and around southeast Bay of Bengal is indicative of a tropical system (likely low-pressure area) developing, which is showing signs of a westward movement towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.

Its behaviour will be closely watched for another 24 hours before confirming the onset features. The Arabian Sea arm of the monsoon hits mainland India (along the Kerala coast) 10 to 12 days after the Bay of Bengal arm meanders in at the southeast territorial port of call (Andaman Islands).

The monsoon-driving Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the global band of low pressure, is already showing signs of accentuation over the southeast Bay. Northeast India is also bracing to receive the first monsoon showers in linear progression from across the southeast border.

The IMD has already indicated that the rain showers in the northeast will scale up to being widespread to fairly widespread. An assortment of helpful cyclonic circulations will aid the transformation, and might lead up to the unravelling of classic monsoon onset conditions over Northeast India.

Squalls forecast

Meanwhile, a prevailing western disturbance is tipped to trigger scattered rain/thundershowers over the western Himalayan region during the next 24 hours. Isolated dust storms/thunderstorms accompanied by squalls are also likely over the plains of northwest India and Rajasthan.

Bay depression

The prevailing heat wave conditions over some parts of west Rajasthan are likely to continue for the next 48 hours. The highest maximum temperature of 44.9°C was recorded at Ganganagar and Barmer during the past 24 hours.

Things had started looking up from late last week when a prevailing `low' over the Andaman Sea had proceeded to intensify into a depression before heading north-northeast, as predicted, and making a landfall over Myanmar. Torrential rainfall had been reported from the Bay Islands in the bargain.

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com says that it is safe to assume that the southwest monsoon has set in over most of Indochina and southern Myanmar. The `pipeline' for deep moisture eastward to southern China is in place. Northeast India will also get covered in tandem.

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