The Hindu Business Line : `Low' forms but drives heat into TN, AP coasts

Thiruvananthapuram May 11 A low-pressure area has materialised over east central Bay of Bengal a day after onset of monsoon in these parts, but associated northeasterlies are dragging hot winds to create heat wave conditions in north coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Some respite could be had if, as expected, the `low' intensifies progressively to become a depression by Saturday, sending down protective cloud bands. This will prevent the heat wave conditions from aggravating, even helping bring down mercury to tolerable levels over the next two days.

MONSOON ADVANCES

In its update on Friday, India Meteorological Department said the southwest monsoon has advanced into some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Conditions are favourable for its further advancement over some more parts of Andaman Sea and southeast Bay of Bengal.

A trough in the westerlies is likely to affect the hilly region of Northwest India in the next 24 to 36 hours. It may cause scattered rain/thundershowers in the region. Model predictions also indicate the likely enhancement of rain/thundershower over the Northeastern States during the next four days four days precipitating monsoon here as well.

LIKELY CYCLONE

Hot northwesterlies from the mainland will have a major say in deciding which way the Bay `low' will move and with what strength. Home-grown weather models see the system moving slightly to the west and intensifying into a depression. Thereafter, it would stagnate and might even lose in strength.

But the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) says the system will move north-northeast with intensification. It could go on to even become a cyclone and cross the West Bengal coast by May 16/17.

This is a possibility that cannot be ruled out given that the prevailing northwesterlies could steer the system north-northeast and guide it into the warmer waters of the Head Bay where it could spin faster to become a possible cyclone.

EARLY ONSET?

Projections by the US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) indicate that the `burst' of monsoon along the Kerala coast could take place during the week of May 18 to 25. ECMWF predictions more or less indicate the same timeline, which beats normal schedule (June 1) by a week.

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US came out with its outlook for the equatorial Pacific where evolving weather conditions favoured the build-up of a nascent La Nina event (cooling of equatorial and east Pacific).

Most statistical and coupled model forecasts, including those from Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), indicate below-average sea surface temperatures during the next several months.

But some forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. So, the next couple of months are a critical time period for the possible emergence of La Nina, considered a good augury for prevailing Indian monsoon.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather | Outlook

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
`Low' forms but drives heat into TN, AP coasts

Govt sets up group to plan rural broadband rollout

Industrial output surges by 12.9% in March

Korea hopeful of trade pact with India by Dec

Textile sector will generate 17 m jobs by 2012: Vaghela

Finally, Sun sets Java `free'

Future ATMs will do a lot more than just dispense cash

Markets recover on inflation, UP results

LIC raises stock market exposure

Bank stocks may remain under pressure

Volvo entering logistical services