The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon onset `lead time' may get cut

It is helping to strengthen the cross-equatorial monsoon flows but expectations that it would get embedded into the flows being steered towards the Kerala coast are belied.

Thiruvananthapuram May 20 The clouding associated with a low-pressure area developing in the Arabian Sea has lately shown a tendency to get concentrated to the west (near the Africa coast, away from India), which may cut down the `lead time' with which monsoon is expected to break over Kerala.

All major models, including that of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), had earlier said that the onset would take place earlier than expected, with the lead margin ranging from five to seven days of the normal.

`Low' stagnant

The hitch is that the developing `low' has tended to be more or less stagnant, without advancing to the east, as was expected.

It is helping to strengthen the cross-equatorial monsoon flows but expectations that it would get embedded into the flows being steered towards the Kerala coast are belied.

In fact, the `low' has broken free of the flows, and has carved a separate identity for itself.

Flows diverted

This will cause some flows to be diverted, which is aside of that precipitated by a raging Pacific typhoon.

In this manner, local factors are forcing a change in the physical features of the developing system and proving dynamical model projections slightly off the mark.

Clouding to west

Satellite pictures too reveal that the clouding is becoming more and more prominent to the west, i.e. towards the African coast. On the other hand, conditions are just favourable for the onset to take place in the north eastern States. An announcement is expected sooner than later, according to sources.

The normal schedule puts Kerala and the North-East along the same timeline for monsoon onset. This may not happen this time round, if these sources are to be believed. Break of monsoon over Sri Lanka, which happens immediately before that in Kerala, is being eagerly watched in this backdrop.

A passing western disturbance is causing thundershowers in the north and the northwest, bringing down mercury. But no such luck is indicated for coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Monsoon onset `lead time' may get cut

Healthcare BPO sector looking for freshers

Japan-bound

Govt fine-tuning bidding process for oil, gas blocks

IT majors firm up hike in entry-level salaries

Investors foxed as banks refuse to buy back gold

Short-term weakness seen in gold

It's only `guarded optimism' for now

Microsoft enters security scene with Forefront, System Center