The Hindu Business Line : Exit for exit polls?

In the recent UP elections, exit polls received a stunning defeat. For the total 402 seats, the various exit polls had suggested these outcomes: NDTV: 117-127 seats for the BSP, 113-123 for the SP, 108-118 for the BJP, and 35-45 for the Congress. The Star News-Nielsen

figures were, respectively, 137, 96, 108 and 27. The CNN-IBN Indian Express forecast: 152-168, 99-111, 80-90 and 21-27, respectively. The actual result was: 206, 97, 51 and 22 respectively.

The minimum error from the actual outcome is in excess of 20 per cent. So, of what earthy use are the exit polls? It can be argued that when an election happens in phases, the exit poll results would help boost the confidence of the parties that are projected to be doing well, and also help those losing out to take last minute correctives. The Election Commission's view is that such intermediate exit polls should not be allowed.

In a newspaper interview, on May 6, the Chief Election Commissioner, Mr N. Gopalaswami, gave the following view on the issue of regulating exit polls: "... in a multi-phased poll, ... if the results of the exit poll are aired in each phase, it will influence voters in the next phase... What we say is it is likely to disturb the level playing ground and is likely to influence the voters one way or the other. Therefore, it should not be done."

Suppose the exit polls are held only after the last phase of the poll process has ended or have been held at the end of each phase, but results are issued only after the entire poll process is completed. Then, the only use the forecasts have is to let the people know the likely outcome, which, in these days of electronic voting would not take too long to put excitement into exit polls.

Exit polls may lose their sheen, but will not go. They stay as reminders of one of many manifestations of freedom coupled with purchasing power, freedom to conduct the polls and purchasing power of those sponsoring them.

(The author is Professor Emeritus, GITAM Institute of Foreign Trade, Visakhapatnam and Visiting Faculty, Sri Sathya Sai University, Prasanthi Nilayam. He can be reached at bhanoji@gmail.com)

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