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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram May 29 The inaugural pulse of the monsoon has progressed north and is currently active in north Kerala and adjoining coastal Karnataka.

On Tuesday, the northern limit of monsoon passed through Karwar, Chitradurg, Pamban and into adjoining Bay of Bengal. It is expected to lash parts of Konkan and Goa within the next two days, at least a week before schedule, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD).

ACTIVITY IN BAY

One welcome aspect of the progress of monsoon in the peninsula has been the coverage of Tamil Nadu, normally considered a rain shadow region, and south coastal Andhra Pradesh. These places had witnessed a severe heat wave not too far ago.

The eastward moving upper-level westerly trough was instrumental in making this coverage happen. According to Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology, the trough is poised to touch off some activity in the Bay of Bengal as well.

This may help revive the Bay of Bengal arm of monsoon, whose progress has been severely compromised by Tropical Cyclone Akash during the early onset stages and later by a Category-4 typhoon, Yutu, in the west Pacific.

NEXT PULSE SOON

According to Dr Ramesh, the distinct clouding pattern over Sri Lanka and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal provides early indications of revival of the Bay arm. This may also trigger the onset of monsoon in the Northeast, which normally coincides with that over Kerala.

In this manner, monsoon would have covered Kerala, Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka by the time the next monsoon `pulse' hits the South. This will take place around this weekend, ending a brief lull following the passage of the inaugural pulse. The Arabian Sea will also manage to recoup some of the kinetic energy during this intermission.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has indicated that the flows would grow to be strong enough to spin up a depression/cyclone along coastal Karnataka.

This will need to be confirmed, since any building of activity in the Bay across the peninsula around the same time could cause some of the flows to get redirected. But, according to Dr Ramesh, there are clear signals to the strengthening of the flows by June 4 and consequent scale-up in the intensity of rainfall along the west coast.

RAIN BELT ADVANCES

On Tuesday, the monsoon advanced into some parts of central Arabian Sea, most parts of coastal Karnataka, some parts of south interior Karnataka and more parts of Tamil Nadu and south Bay of Bengal.

An IMD forecast said that under the influence of an offshore trough extending from south Konkan coast to Kerala coast, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, south Konkan and Goa during the next 48 hours. The ongoing rainfall activity over interior Karnataka is likely to increase during the same period.

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Monsoon may make early inroads into Konkan

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