The Hindu Business Line : National Security and Foreign Policy

The broad strands of the foreign policy that India has followed in the post-Cold War years following the collapse of the Soviet Union were formulated skilfully by the P. V. Narasimha Rao government. They included the realisation that in the post-Cold War era, India, like China, has to fashion a new relationship with the United States, while striving to strengthen existing ties with other centres of power such as Russia, Japan and the European Union. While a cooperative and tension free relationship with China was desirable, Beijing's unrelenting efforts to "contain" India by nuclear and missile transfers to Pakistan and its inroads into the Indian Ocean could not be ignored.

Narasimha Rao ensured that despite American pressures India's strategic nuclear autonomy was not compromised. Similarly, the most significant achievement of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee years was the skill with which India demonstrated its economic strength and diplomatic finesse to withstand global pressures, including economic sanctions after its nuclear tests of May 1998 that led to a new recognition and respect for the country's potential.

Position of Strength

When Dr Manmohan Singh assumed office, in May 2004, India enjoyed a measure of respect in important world capitals primarily because of its economic potential, the resilience of its democratic institutions and its military strength. The US acknowledged that in its reckoning India constituted one of the six important centres of global power in coming years.

India was invited to participate, along with China, South Africa and Brazil at summit level meetings following G-8 gatherings. The Commerce Minister, Mr Kamal Nath, showed considerable skills in fashioning viable coalitions as the World Trade Organisation moved towards further trade liberalisation in the Doha Round.

Resisting protectionist pressures from entrenched domestic lobbies Dr Manmohan Singh showed considerable political courage in fashioning Free Trade Agreements with countries such as Singapore and Thailand. Sadly, the same sense of openness was not shown as the nation reverted to the protectionist mindset in finalising a path-breaking Free Trade Agreement with the Association of South-East Asian Nations.

The processes of the forward looking `Look East' policies have been carried forward satisfactorily in the past three years, in much the same manner as the country has strengthened relations with a newly assertive Russia under the President, Mr Vladimir Putin. The India-Russia-China grouping will hopefully be complemented with an India-Japan-US set to develop a viable balance of power in Asia and the Asia-Pacific.

Despite constant sniping from the Left parties, Dr Manmohan Singh has tried to go ahead with his instinctive recognition of the importance of improving relations with the US. Sadly, he has tried to proceed in implementing the India-US nuclear deal with far too much secrecy and an evident absence of being able to anticipate the pitfalls. Quite obviously the Hyde Act passed by US Congress contains provisions that are totally unacceptable.

The Prime Minister will have to recognise that the Nuclear Deal will continue to haunt him if he fails to fulfil the promises made in Parliament about India refusing to accept conditions that would adversely affect our nuclear weapons programme, or the indigenous thorium-based fast breeder power programme.

Likewise India should not put itself in a position of importing reactors from any country unless fuel supplies are guaranteed (with penalty clauses for non-compliance) for the lifetime of the reactors and it is accorded the unfettered right to reprocess spent fuel. We will have to patiently negotiate the issues involved till the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group formally ends sanctions before we commence implementation of commitments we have made.

Within South Asia, India can derive satisfaction with the manner in which developments in Nepal are taking shape, though New Delhi came close to alienating the people of Nepal by seeming to be too solicitous of the interests of a the widely discredited monarch in the midst of a popular agitation against him.

Rudderless in South Asia

Over the past three years, the Government appeared rudderless in dealing with the compulsive hostility of the Khaleda Zia Government in Bangladesh and it is fortuitous that the caretaker government in Dhaka has chosen to adopt a more friendly approach. The approach to Sri Lanka has similarly been directionless because of the virtual veto given to Southern coalition partners of the UPA.

Dr Manmohan Singh has handled the dialogue with Pakistan on Jammu and Kashmir and other issues imaginatively. But excessive secrecy is raising doubts about the direction of talks.

But the Prime Minister appears to show little understanding of the dynamics of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and the Government has played into the hands of Gen Pervez Musharraf by its ill-advised approach to the establishment of a non-functional Joint Terror Mechanism. Dr Singh has also not inspired confidence with his readiness to withdraw Indian forces from Siachen with scant regard for the consequences if Pakistan moved into the positions vacated.

Merely because Pakistan is discussing frameworks to resolve Jammu and Kashmir that involve no change in borders, does not mean it has discarded old ambitions.

This was evident from the objectionable references to J&K at a recent meeting of OIC (Organisation of Islamic Conference) Foreign Ministers that Islamabad hosted and by Islamabad's failure to dismantle the infrastructure of terrorism on its soil.

A crucial area of diplomacy in which New Delhi has consistently failed in the past three years is on issues of energy security.

Energy Security

Singularly inept diplomacy led to losing out to China on oil exploration contracts in Angola and Kazakhstan. New Delhi then messed up negotiations with Myanmar for supply of offshore gas by insisting, much to Yangon's discomfiture, that the gas be transported through Bangladesh.

Similarly, rather than taking the simple route of negotiating only with Iran for guaranteed delivery of gas through the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline at our border, New Delhi has got involved in messy tripartite negotiations with Iran and Pakistan, despite warnings that India received in the past from the highest level in Pakistan that gas supplies could be cut off in crises situations. This is yet another instance of illusions prevailing over reality in the conduct of relations with Pakistan. Sadly, there is very little study today in South Block on the geopolitics of energy.

Finally, if the amateur manner in which India had to withdraw the ill-advised nomination of Shashi Tharoor for the post of UN Secretary-General was a symbol of Indian diplomacy reaching its lowest levels and embarrassing India internationally, New Delhi can derive satisfaction at the success of its policy of cultivating a broad cross-section of the European Parliament — a move that has led to much better appreciation of issues pertaining to J&K across Europe.

The individual who deserves high praise for this effort is N. N. Vohra, Special Representative for J&K. It was Mr Vohra who fought a hard battle to persuade people who matter that transparency is the best approach for a democracy like India in dealing with the outside world on J&K. Undermining dialogue between people in India and Pakistan in which representatives of Jammu and Kashmir from both sides of the Line of Control participate by refusing to issue visas to Pakistani nationals, as South Block recently did, is hardly the right way to carry forward the Prime Minister's concept of "making borders irrelevant".

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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