The Hindu Business Line : `Gonu' ramps up into super cyclone status

Thiruvananthapuram June 4 The very severe cyclonic storm `Gonu' in the Arabian Sea has attained class-topping `super cyclone' status (a category-4 storm in the five-step Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale) and is tearing away to slam into the Oman coast.

No other storm in the Arabian Sea in recorded history has managed to spin up to this intensity. But while doing so, Gonu has also pulled the rug from under the monsoon's feat by appropriating the influx of moisture pumped in from the southern hemisphere.

EXPLOSIVE STRENGTH

Gonu features a well evolved `eye' that is indicative of its strength and typical of the class it has been elevated to. It has been moving surprisingly slow to the north-northwest, away from India's coast. The extended stay on the very warm waters (above 30 deg C) afforded it the fuel for amassing explosive strength.

The storm packs winds speeding to 240 km/hr and has an estimated central pressure of 910 millibars, which is expected to drop further, increasing the strength of winds blowing into the system.

Gonu could briefly rage as a category-5 storm briefly before making landfall two days from now, according to forecasts by various models. This could make it one of the strongest storms recorded till date to stroll either of the seas - the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal - straddling the peninsula.

Popping up as an innocuous `low' in east-central Arabian Sea, the system was initially thought to constitute the `monsoon vortex' that would help the southwest monsoon current progress along India's southwest coast into the north.

The dimensions changed dramatically, as did the direction of the storm's lateral movement (west-northwest), in the backdrop of the steaming seas and favourable atmospheric conditions. Rapid intensification ensured that all monsoon flows got redirected into the massive system.

RAIN BANDS STRAY

But, according to Dr K. J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Gonu has been sending in some outer rain bands into the east, which was evident in the form of upper level clouds over Konkan, Goa and Gujarat regions. They heralded short spells of rain and thundershowers in these regions on Sunday and Monday.

An offshore trough extending from the centre of the super cyclone has now become less marked. Under its influence, scattered rainfall is likely along the west coast during next 48 hours, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast said on Monday.

Going forward, however, monsoon flows are forecast to pick up in strength from June 7 onwards. Advance seven-day forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest the flows peaking to throw up a depression at the least and sailing into the west coast by June 15.

The Bay of Bengal would also have gone into action mode by then, with a broad-based trough of low settling in.

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