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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram June 7 The `leading edge' of the reviving monsoon has made its presence felt along coastal Karnataka and further east into Andhra Pradesh, bringing good rainfall over these regions in the 24 hours ended Thursday morning.

The "leading edge" of a monsoon current is laced by thunderstorms and squalls, and it unfolds as it whips past virgin landscape battered by the summer sun. It skips those areas covered by the preceding monsoon pulse (the inaugural pulse, in this case).

But these very areas (Kerala, parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka) are bracing to receive the "backup flows" of the reviving monsoon in the next two to three days, said Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology. "A very active phase of the monsoon will unravel as we go along," he added.

FLOWS DEVELOPING

Forecast by the National Centre for Medium-term Weather Forecasting (NCMWRF) cited numerical models to suggest an increase in mean sea level pressure gradient along the west coast that may cause the monsoon flow to re-develop and strengthen over the Arabian Sea, south peninsula and the Bay of Bengal from Saturday.

Given this backdrop, the monsoon is likely to progress over parts of peninsular India in the next 48 hours, the centre said. Predictions also indicate the onset of monsoon over the northeastern States alongside. But this will be matched only by accentuation of a heat wave over most parts of northwest India.

STRENGTH EVIDENT

The Arabian Sea pulling itself together so soon in the wake of super cyclone Gonu is further proof of the strength of the basic monsoon current, Dr Ramesh said. Normally, it would take at least a week for the seas to recoup the kinetic energy forfeited in such massive scale as occasioned by Gonu.

With Gonu's `pull' weakening with landfall over Oman, the south-westerly flows have once again started domineering the Arabian Sea region. "It's either a prevailing cyclone or the normal monsoon flows which dominates the season, and there's always one winner in the tussle that spans the peninsular seas."

For now, at least, it's the monsoon flow that is winning, Dr Ramesh said. On Thursday, it had extended cover southwards to the north of Kerala.

The backup flows, expected to begin over the next two days, will cover the rest of Kerala and the peninsular tip.

HEAVY CLOUDS

Heavy cloudiness and incursion of moisture have been evident in the coastal Karnataka-Andhra Pradesh region as early as from overnight on Thursday, Dr Ramesh said. The monsoon current will further establish after the backup flows bear down on the southwest coast.

Meanwhile, Mr Unnikrishna Kaimal, officiating at the Thiruvananthapuram Met Office, said there were telltale signs of the monsoon reinstating itself. Humidity levels and cloudiness have built up to the required levels. The two main parameters that had not evolved fully as on Thursday were the pressure gradient and the wind speeds. But these were expected to start falling into line as early as from Thursday evening itself.

The Fisheries Control Room along the Kerala coast has warned about the possibility of southwesterly winds cranking up speeds of 45 to 65 km/hr over the next 48 hours.

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`Leading edge' of reviving monsoon enters mainland

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