The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon reaches N-E, picking strength

Thiruvananthapuram June 8 Southwest monsoon made a belated but fully loaded onset in the North-East on Friday even as it advanced further into the peninsula and more parts of south Bay of Bengal.

In one fell swoop, the Bay of Bengal arm of monsoon covered entire Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura; and parts of Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh in a fashion reminiscent of the Arabian Sea arm buffeting Kerala on May 28.

Monsoon is now expected to be in "active phase" at least until June 13 when rainfall would be widespread to fairly widespread over the peninsula as well as the northeast, said Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology.

The setting required for the larger monsoon theatre to unravel is more or less complete with the offshore trough realigning along the Kerala-Karnataka coast; a full blown east-to-west shear zone of monsoon turbulence establishing over the peninsula; steady moisture feed; and fast-picking winds.

The National Centre for Medium term Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said the pressure gradient along the west coast has improved overnight, clearing the way for monsoon to progress over Konkan and Goa, parts of Madhya Maharashtra and some more parts of peninsular India during the next 4-5 days.

The monsoon itinerary over the next week or so is expected to be largely uneventful, except for the low-pressure area that the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) sees popping up close to land along the Orissa coast. `Lows'/depressions are perfectly in order from a monsoon point of view much unlike destructive weather systems such as super cyclone Gonu.

Key role

This "low" will prospectively play a significant role in driving monsoon into central India, especially Orissa, Vidarbha and Telengana. Easterlies are expected to grow in strength around that time ensuring adequate moisture feed from the Bay, which would help the "low" move in the customary west-northwest direction into the Indian heartland.

This would bear close watching since the leading edge of monsoon can make dramatic switchbacks in the direction of lateral movement as well as in terms of accumulated strength, said Dr Ramesh. But ECMWF forecasts compel attention given the successful tracking of super cyclone Gonu and predecessor cyclone Akash in the Bay during end-May.

Met update

Monsoon rains are expected to reach Kolkata around the due date of June 10 with a margin error of a day or two. Mumbai will need to wait until June 11 for the onset as per latest assessment unless a really powerful monsoon pulse settles things earlier for the country's financial capital.

An India Meteorological Department update said that on Friday, the northern limit of monsoon passed through Karwar, Chitradurga, Salem, Nagapattinam, Cherrapunji, North Lakhimpur and Passighat.

Conditions are favourable for further advance into some parts of Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Northeast, parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next three days. More parts of interior Karnataka, Puducherry, entire Tamil Nadu and parts of Andhra Pradesh are also likely to receive rains during this period.

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