The Hindu Business Line : Strong flows may toss up `low' over Bay

Thiruvananthapuram June 13 A cyclonic circulation over Head Bay of Bengal is seen streaming easterlies into east Uttar Pradesh by the weekend while the monsoon as a whole will get a further leg-up from a `low' popping up over west-central Bay by June 20.

The US Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) has already picked the Head Bay circulation (tagged `93B') to the east of Bhubaneshwar and has kept it under watch for signs for further intensification. On Wednesday, it featured winds speeding at 15 knots, just below the threshold for being elevated a `low.'

Low-level monsoon easterlies from this circulation are seen interacting with an incoming middle-level westerly trough (part of a western disturbance) around June 15. This interaction will create intense rainfall over eastern Uttar Pradesh heralding the arrival of monsoon into that region, meteorological sources said.

`LOW' MAY FORM

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is betting on west-central Bay tossing up the low-pressure area by June 20. This `low' will anchor the monsoon flows on the Bay side even as strengthening flows over the Arabian Sea might just manage to fling yet another to the other side of the peninsula.

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com says strong shearing winds may not allow a cyclone to develop over the Arabian Sea at this point of time but ECMWF graphics suggest that part of the strong Arabian Sea flows may break away to set up a system that targets Oman, yet again, for a landfall. But sources said this would need further confirmation.

BAY ARM ON COURSE

Two weeks after onset was declared on the southwest coast, the Arabian Sea arm is yet to fully recover from the mighty loss of energy to Super Cyclone Gonu that pummelled Oman last week. But the Bay arm has left behind initial hiccups to progress well, managing to mostly keep to schedule.

But the flows are building on the west coast and have covered more parts of central Arabian Sea, Konkan and Goa on Wednesday. The northern limit of monsoon passed through Vengurla, Gulbarga, Nizamabad, Vishakhapatnam, Digha, Bankura, Bhagalpur and Raxol.

An Ohio state University update said that the monsoon has also advanced into entire interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema; most parts of Telangana and costal Andhra Pradesh; entire southwest and west-central Bay; some more parts of northwest Bay; some parts of Gangetic West Bengal and some more parts of Bihar.

CONDITIONS FAVOURABLE

Conditions are favourable for its further advance into some more parts of Konkan-Goa and some parts of madhya Maharashtra and Bihar; and some parts of Orissa and Jharkhand during the next two to three days. The offshore trough from Karnataka to Kerala now extends from south Konkan-Goa to Kerala coast.

According to Mr Andrews, towards the east of the country, the tops of widespread, deadly cloudbursts are obvious in and about the head of the Bay of Bengal. To the west, the biggest mass of rain-bearing cloud is somewhat offshore.

Mumbai still waits, but numerical model forecasts suggest that bona fide monsoon rains will break by Thursday. Meaningful rains, if not necessarily the declared monsoon, should be underway within all Indian States during the next six to 10 days, Mr Andrews said.

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