The Hindu Business Line : Vigil for monsoon surge in Western Ghats

Thiruvananthapuram June 15 Mumbai is just a `surge away' from being walloped by the southwest monsoon even as the `leading edge' piloted some scattered thunderstorms over the city and neighbourhood over the past day or two.

Seasonal rains could scamper into the country's financial capital any time, said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology. Monsoon continues to be in a very active phase, though five days late for Mumbai.

In another development, India Meteorological Department (IMD) officially put the Bay of Bengal under watch for an evolving low-pressure area. It said on Friday a `low' is likely to form over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay around June 20, which the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) had predicted earlier.

ECMWF predictions

The ECMWF is now predicting a blow-up of rainfall over the Mumbai-Saurashtra region by June 25. This is as it should be given the vigorous phase which the monsoon would get into by that time, Dr Ramesh said. It is normal for `primary rain maxima' to sit over Mumbai, while Saurashtra would play host to a `secondary rain maxima' during a sustained wet session stretched over four to five days.

A close watch is being mounted for any sign of repeat of the record precipitation that nearly incapacitated Maharashtra and Gujarat last year. Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com said that these extreme events had been "advertised" by numerical weather models well ahead.

As of this time, however, there has been no such indication other than for the area of Northeast India and Bangladesh. No doubt, uplift of the monsoon by the Western Ghats can be expected to work its rain-making magic still, Mr Andrews said.

The offshore trough along the west coast continues to be active and is expected to bring enhanced rainfall activity to the region. According to Dr Ramesh, the upper easterlies have established a strong presence over the peninsula.

`Easterly jet'

The `easterly jet' was seen cruising along the Chennai latitude full strength on Friday in what Dr Ramesh described as a classic setting for monsoon to flourish. A vital piece in the monsoon jigsaw puzzle, the jet had been languishing much south to its current position until just a day or two back.

This had in turn delayed the formation of the southwest-northeast oriented `shear zone of monsoon turbulence' (set up by monsoon westerlies and upper level easterlies over the peninsula) which may partly explain the tardy progress of monsoon into Mumbai.

On Friday, however, the core of easterlies housing the jet had etched out the shear zone with the consolidating westerlies below.

IMD update

An update by IMD said on Friday that the monsoon had advanced into Konkan and Goa, some more parts of central Arabian Sea, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Telangana, Jharkhand, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

On Friday, the northern limit of monsoon passed through Ratnagiri, Parbhani, Ramagundam, Gopalpur, Balasore, Ranchi, Varanasi, Sultanpur, Bahraich and Mukteshwar.

Favourable conditions

Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon into some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next three days.

Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over western Himalayan Region, the Indo-Gangetic plains and the northeastern states during the next two days. As predicted, southeasterlies streaming in from the Bay of Bengal interacted with a prevailing westerly trough to bring monsoon onto east Uttar Pradesh after covering Bihar and Jharkhand earlier.

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