The Hindu Business Line : Reviving the EU Constitution: Poland seeks electoral multiplier from square root formula

Poland's proposed `square root' system — which has not yet been fully explained — would result in an electoral boost for Poland relative to Germany.

As in each of my previous business trips to Poland, I was asked to step aside by the Polish immigration officer at the Warsaw airport. I prepared myself for a good 30-90-minute delay and questioning in a most unfriendly manner, much as in the old communist days.

Like it or not, non-citizens do not have an absolute right to enter Poland. Even with a Polish visa. Even if you are a European Union permanent resident. Even if you are an EU citizen.

What follows each time is not what the EU in Brussels or I believe in. It is the way things are in Poland.

When appearing at a Polish port of entry you are assumed to be an immigrant unless you establish you are a visitor. Ultimately, I got all the right stamps, this time and every time. But there has got to be a better way!

Later, when I met officials at the Indian Embassy, one diplomat confirmed that even with his diplomatic passport, things were not very different. Poland's stubbornness and lack of charm is not only reflected in their border controls but also in their cross-border relations, within the EU.

European Constitution

The European Parliament in Brussels, has its hands full this week The current holder of the rotating EU presidency is the German Chancellor, Ms Angela Merkel. For weeks, she has been sticking to a European Union draft treaty which has put her on a direct collision course with President Lech Walesa and Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski of Poland.

Ms Merkel is seeking to get all the 27 club members on the same page when it comes to reviving the stillborn constitution. But it looks as though the Warsaw twins aren't playing ball.

Second Referendum

One of the difficulties in the current process is that 18 EU members have already ratified the treaty. But among those that have not, there is considerable scepticism about a document that infringes on their sovereign rights or, in the case of Poland, limits their say in the club.

In addition to Poland and Britain, the Czech Republic and Denmark are likewise wary of the draft treaty. It seems that coming to a consensus on the new document — which, according to heckler countries such as Poland, is no longer to be called a `constitution' — is far from a slam plunge.

Poland is concerned about the new voting system foreseen by the new treaty. Under its `double majority' system, European Council decisions would have to be approved by 55 per cent of the EU members (at least 15 of 27 states) representing 65 per cent of the European population.

According to this formula, Poland would have approximately six votes out of 100 compared to 17 for Germany, which has a population 2.5 times greater than Poland. On the other hand, Poland's proposed `square root' system — which hasn't yet been fully explained — would result in an electoral boost for Poland relative to Germany.

Teaming Up

Polish Prime Minister Kaczynski is banking on support from the Czech Republic in his fight against Europe. And, it seems as though he might get it.

The Czech President, Mr Vaclav Klaus, went on the offensive by accusing France and Germany of trying to push through the original constitution under a different name.

As you read this, European leaders are meeting in Brussels in a showdown summit, to try to resurrect the stalled constitution. Although other countries, such as Britain, the Czech Republic and Denmark, also need convincing about the merits of the new treaty, it is Poland that is attracting all the attention as the Euro-kill-joy.

Germany has undoubtedly always played a leading role — due to its size and economic cuff — no one could ever accuse it of not having used this position for the good of the whole community.

Polish Formula

The problem is that there is no real middle ground available for Poland's central request in the constitutional debate.

Only the Poles want a change to the `double majority' for future agreements in the EU. But that cannot happen. One of the main achievements of the current constitutional treaty is exactly this rule, which finally distributes voting rights proportionally based on population size.

This defensive stance is due to a deep mistrust of its big German neighbour (to the west). This is neither justified by the behaviour of the current government, nor is it understandable. Europe is not a zero-sum game. The EU is a project in which cooperation makes a winner of all participants. And, put the other way around: With no cooperation, everyone is a loser.

Reconciliation

As I write this, Poland has signalled its hope that reconciliation can be reached in its continued opposition to some elements of the draft treaty.

The apparent softening comes after weeks of growing pressure and pleas from around Europe. There is anticipation that Poland now might back away from its threats to block the treaty. Clearly, Poland is fretful to avoid seclusion. But the damage in relations with the rest of the EU may already have been done.

A suspicious mindset, mistrust, border crossing troubles, heavy snow all day, dangerous traffic and icy roads are common encounters in Europe's Poland. This week, a cold summer awaits Europe.

(The author is a former Europe Director of CII and lives in Cologne, Germany. Feedback may be sent to mohan.murti@t-online.de)

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