The Hindu Business Line : `Low' may unleash monsoon fury over peninsula

Thiruvananthapuram June 17 The `low' expected to materialise over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal on Tuesday may trigger what looks like to be the most vigorous phase yet of the monsoon with hints of a tropical cyclone being thrown in for good measure.

But a tropical cyclone is a remote possibility at this stage of the monsoon since the shearing winds (easterlies) in the upper levels could demolish the thunderheads, killing the storm activity almost instantaneously.

SMEARED LOOK

This will cause associated clouds to disperse, which would be depicted in the typical `smeared look' of the landscape that satellite pictures give out. Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology also ruled out the possibility of a tropical cyclone building over the Bay at this point of time.

But wind speeds, as well as moisture feed, are seen peaking to unleash monsoon in its full fury during this week. The winds are seen mostly sustaining their speeds even after the parent `low' moves into land and careens in a north-northwest direction across the peninsula right up into Gujarat.

What will likely prolong the wet session longer than expected is the ground-level support from moisture feed available on land pounded already by at least one round of monsoon rains, Dr Ramesh said.

RAIN ALERT

Already, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has put Orissa and Andhra Pradesh under rain alert from June 20. But, going by the the ECMWF projections, almost the entire peninsula - Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal, north interior and south interior Karnataka, Vidarbha, madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, Rayalaseema - and parts of Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat would be brought under the influence of this active monsoon spell.

In the meanwhile, a remnant of the system is shown as straying into the east-northeast direction to settle as a fresh `low' around Head Bay by June 27. This could likely allow easterlies from the Bay to travel along the seasonal trough and drive monsoon rains to the entire Indo-Gangetic plains and the northwest sector.

LARGER TROUGH

An IMD update said that the current meteorological analysis suggested fairly widespread rainfall over east India and the north eastern States during the next three days.

Dr Ramesh said the large trough extending from China was still active bringing heavy rains as far west as Northeast India. The southern periphery of this trough passed over Bangladesh, which explains the very heavy rainfall and severe flooding in that country.

The offshore trough continues to be active along India's west coast, which will bring increased rainfall activity to the region over the next three days. An update from the Ohio State University (OSU) said that the offshore had extended north (from Kerala coast) into Gujarat on Sunday.

CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS

The OSU traced an ensemble of helpful cyclonic circulations dotting the landscape and hanging over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka; northwest Rajasthan and adjoining Punjab; and, north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir.

The IMD forecast warned that during the next two days isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to occur over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

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