The Hindu Business Line : Bay `low' could deepen into depression: IMD

Thiruvananthapuram June 18 The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has put the brewing low-pressure area in the west-central Bay of Bengal under watch for signs of intensification into a full-blown monsoon depression.

This comes even as stray international models predicted that a tropical cyclone could spin up from the system.

But these projections have drawn flak from monsoon-watchers back home.

The dynamics do not normally allow for violent systems to develop except during the monsoon onset phase. It could at best become a deep depression, a notch below tropical cyclone, says Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology.

"There's just one per cent chance, if at all, of further intensification before crossing land." For a system to develop into a full-blown cyclone, a period of `residency' over warm seawaters extending up to a threshold level is taken for granted.

But this window is severely limited in the instant case with the system is brewing close to the coast.

Moisture available from the warm seawaters is the fuel that the heat engine requires for the system to sustain and grow further.

But the short duration of travel over the ocean surface curtails the moisture feed into the system.

WIND SHEAR

Additionally, the system has to contend with the strong east-to-west shear from prominent easterlies.

Cloud tops of any building storm get sheared away in this manner.

In any case, the focus is shifting to peninsular India, with activity in both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal peaking.

This is only natural since the region to the south of the system, or preferably the southwest, experiences maximum convergence during the active phase of monsoon.

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com says that a powerful low is tracked west-northwest from the Andhra coast towards Gujarat as of early Sunday.

This would feature high winds and torrential rains in some far-flung places in the peninsula.

It does seem the weather in these parts is set to become increasingly unsettled and even downright stormy, Mr Andrews said.

His hunch is that a tropical cyclone will pop up somewhere in the region within 6-10 days.

MONSOON ADVANCES

An IMD update on Monday said that the monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, Konkan, Goa, some more parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, remaining parts of Telangana, some parts of Vidarbha and some more parts of Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand.

The northern limit passed through Dhahanu, Parbhani, Brahmapuri, Raipur, Sambalpur, Keonjhgarh, Ranchi, Varanasi, Sultanpur, Bahraich and Mukteshwar.

The brewing `low' is likely to bring widespread to fairly widespread rainfall to Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Goa, south Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat for at least four days from Thursday.

Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy fall is likely along the west coast during next three days under the influence of an active offshore trough.

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